AFC East Preview

A contentious AFC East preview? Not really...

New York Jets

Patrick Says: Disclaimer: I think Mark Sanchez is horrible. I cannot write an objective analysis of this Jets team. Between Rex Ryan’s douchebaginess and Sanchez’s inability to throw the ball more than 4 feet off the ground I cannot take them seriously even though they have somehow been in the AFC Championship 2 years in a row. So even though I do not believe in them at all I assume they will win at least 10 games and declare themselves to be the greatest 10 win team of all time, etc, etc. Whatever.

Pete Says: Disclaimer: I also think Mark Sanchez is horrible...but the rest of the team is really damn good. Many expect regression from LT coming into the season. He has regressed the past two years, that's true, and so the expectation isn't unwarranted. But Shonn Greene is there to spell that load. The mix and match of talent on a run-heavy team is a great thing. Moreover, I absolutely love the Plaxico Burress signing. I don't care that he's been out of football for the past two years. I believe that the lockout is going to result in resurgent performances from veterans all over the league and this will benefit teams such as the Jets who have not changed their makeup much. Even noodle-armed Sanchez is going to have a tough time not increasing his performance with Burress on the field in place of Drop Everything It's Braylon Edwards. New York's consistency should see them to the top of the East once again.

New England Patriots

Patrick Says: While Philadelphia has made waves this past couple weeks as the NFLs “Miami Heat” the Patriots have made a few veteran signings as well. Bill Belichick is not a young man any more[1], and neither is Tom Brady. The Patriots defense has been a liability since their core (Vrabel, Bruschi, Samuel, Seymour, et al) left/was cut/etc. a few years ago to save money, and this has prevented them from being a serious threat in the playoffs. They resemble the not too distant Dallas Maverick teams (pre-championship, of course): regular seasons studs and postseason flameouts. I do not see Belichick/Brady going out this way. They know their window is closing. Haynesworth, Ochocinco and everyone else will be motivated, and should lead the Pats to a division title.

Pete Says: Tom Brady has the greatest hair in pro sports and I would be happy to spend serious amounts of time with initial Mrs. Brady castoff Bridget Moynahan. But enough about my best friend Tom Brady. The Patriots have such a balanced attack it's almost not fair. Bill Belichick has bred a ruthless culture of performance and anti-egoism that has allowed New England to be a place to shine for miscreants like Corey Dillon and Randy Moss. There's no reason to think the same won't happen for Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. What the Pats lack in the run game they make up for in their pass attack, sporting every possible type of receiver and two top notch tight ends. If New England can get a full-ish healthy season out of Kevin Faulk, they could do some serious damage all the way through. Unlike Patrick, though, I believe the Jets will win the East. My predictions for this year place value on team consistency, especially on the offensive end. Ochocinco and Haynesworth are both veterans who address needs for the Patriots, but eventually Belichick's faith in his abilities will fail to pan out and this might just be the year. It'll be close at the top, but I think New England falters a bit this year.

Miami Dolphins

Patrick Syas: Well, here’s another team with a lousy QB situation. Chad Henne? Please. If the goal in the NFL was to throw more interceptions than TDs and have a rating of 75 (oh, I’m sorry I’m not using ESPNs stupid new QBR metric yet) then he would be good. But those numbers suck. Henne sucks. Davonne Bess? Brandon Marshall? Please, those guys together combined for 165 rec. and 1800 yds last year. Marvin Harrison practically did that himself in the early 00s. Defensively, they have Cameron Wake. Beast. That is all.

Pete Says: I agree that Miami is going to be pretty awful this year. They pass on quarterbacks in a draft that had a decent number of prospects to take a center? Mike Pouncey definitely has the ability to become a Pro Bowl center, and with fellow linemates Jake Long and Richie Incognito Pouncey could help solidify a formidable offensive line. The problem is that the offensive line might be the most formidable part of the Miami team. Sadly for south Floridians Miami's frequent mismanagement of teams and drafts is starting to chute their organizational rating into the basement. Five years from now when Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet, and Colin Kapernick (that's right I said it) are legitimate starters Dolphin fans will still be making Matt Moore jokes. At least they'll still be able to stream aging and underperforming running backs behind their highly drafted offensive line. Yes, I'm looking at you Reggie Bush.

Buffalo Bills

Patrick Says: Another tough QB situation up in Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t suck last year, and a lot of people thought the Bills could have won a few more games, but this is not going to be their year. The real question will be “Will Ralph Wilson die and will this team move to LA?” I give the Bills credit, they used a lot of picks on up front positions, and didn’t give in to idiot analysts who insisted they draft an overrated QB (a la Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, etc.) But honestly, it will be another tough year in western New York.

Pete Says: I'm high on the Buffalo Bills this year. I really like Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has succeeded every time he's had an opportunity. If Fred Jackson can stay healthy Buffalo also has the potential for a great pairing at running back. But the Bills lack sorely in the receiving game and on defense. Running a 3-4 may now be the vogue in the NFL, but when you're relying on the washed up shell of Shawne Merriman and the black belt of overpursuit Nick Barnett you could be in some serious trouble. Especially against Tom Brady. But somehow Buffalo managed to stay in games late last year and if they end up in a last play situation the Ryan Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson combo is more than enough to help Buffalo luck into a few wins. They'll fight with Miami for the division cellar though.

[1] Pete Says: “And when he was he coached in Cleveland and lost a lot.”

AFC North Preview

In previewing the AFC North, Patrick and I had general agreement with the way the teams split: Pittsburgh and Baltimore at the top, Cincinnati and Cleveland at the bottom. But that was about it.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Patrick Says: They have basically the same schedule as Baltimore, so I would be shocked if they won less than 10 games. However, I feel they might start slow after the dreaded “Super Bowl hangover.” Whatever you think of him, Roethlisberger is a legitimate NFL QB; he wins games. As long as he stays healthy and James Harrison doesn’t kill anyone on the field and go to jail, they’ll win 10 games but finish second in the division.

Pete Says: I’m all in on the Steelers. The AFC North will be less top-heavy this season so the Steelers will probably only win 10 or 11 games, but it will be enough to return them the division title. Mendenhall might be the best back in the divison (sorry Ray Rice). Additionally Pittsburgh has the best receiving core and even a regressing Hines Ward is offset by the addition of Jerricho Cotchery.

Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Says: I’m going to say Baltimore wins the division this year. Their defense is always good. Flacco is a good quarterback. Ray Rice is a legitimate weapon out of the backfield. But here’s the reality: the Ravens play Cleveland and Cincinnati twice, and each NFC West team once. That should be 8 wins right there. For the rest of the 8, I say they play a little better than the Steelers.

Pete Says: I have Baltimore finishing second in the North…but just barely. I actually think that they’ll regress this season. The Ricky Williams pick up solidifies their rushing game, but – and I speak this as a Badger alum – Lee Evans is no one’s answer at wide receiver. Anquan Boldin is still a threat to have a good season, but teams that mix coverage and are able to single cover Evans while enfolding Boldin in a zone scheme will eat Baltimore alive. Flacco has shown flashed of okay-ness, but his ceiling is probably Eli Manning. And with no more Todd Heap to crush helmetless through entire strings of linebackers, the Ravens are destined to finish around .500.

Cleveland Browns

Patrick Says: Another poor year for the Browns. They have a new coach again. They have made a lot of roster changes this year, which is probably good. They haven’t really figured out the QB situation yet. They play in a tough division. Try again next year guys.

Pete Says: I wholeheartedly disagree with Patrick here. Not only do I think the Browns will do okay this year, I feel like they will end up near .500, perhaps even challenging Baltimore for second in the division. Yes, a new coach is in theory far more problematic in the wake of a shortened offseason, but we’ve all read/heard the stories of Colt McCoy meeting with Favre to learn the subtleties of the West Coast offense. The Browns have glaring issues at receiver, but Ben Watson is a solid tight end and having seen literally nothing from Montario Hardesty last year, it is entirely possible that Cleveland has a nice pair of backs on their hands. The decreased work load would ultimately benefit Hillis, too, who wore down at the end of last season. Don’t sleep on the Browns this year. It won’t exactly be Derek Anderson leading them to the playoffs, but at the same time the improvement will be something Cleveland can build on. They could be legit contenders in a couple years.

Cincinnati Bengals

Patrick Says: I have no real reason to think the Bengals will play near .500 football, but I feel that Dalton will play well in a starting role. In addition TO and Ochocinco are gone, they resigned Benson, drafted A.J. Green, and will somehow pull more games out than most people think. Also, they play the NFC West. That can’t hurt.

Pete Says: Patrick and I both have the Bengals slated in the 6 to 7 wins range. It’s tough to say why. They’re being defensibly held hostage by their best QB option (Carson Palmer) because owner Mike Brown has proven himself totally delusional, and their two best players this year will probably be rookies (Dalton and Green). But one thing Cincinnati does have going for it is tremendous potential. Jermaine Gresham has the makings of a very good tight end, and wideout Jerome Simpson has shown improvement that hints at possible number one stuff. You just can’t be sure that all the pieces fit or will even stay together. Perhaps the oddities of a shortened offseason will work in the Bengals’ favor.

Projecting Ricky Rubio

by Pete

So Ricky Rubio has landed. He has finally come to America to play for the lowly Timberwolves alongside Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and self-described future superstar Derrick Williams.

The world is up in arms about Rubio because his stats for his club team in Barcelona last year seem lackluster: 22.7 MPG, 6.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.6 APG. Based on last year’s NBA stats, that pretty much makes him Mario Chalmers. Not exactly what you want from a No. 5 overall pick. But can we judge his Euro performance by our NCAA/NBA standards?

The basketball media is constantly talking about how different the European game is. In fact, the European game is so different that Fran Friscilla has become the Mel Kiper of European basketball and got more face time than Jan Vesely’s girlfriend at this year’s draft.[1]

Comparing Rubio’s stats to his teammates he’d be the fifth highest scorer on the team. In theory, that would situate him as the T’Wolves’ starting point guard. A quick perusal of fifth best scorers on all 30 NBA teams last year puts Rubio somewhere between Shawne Williams and Rajon Rondo. That’s a huge window. If he ends up playing like Shawne Williams, we’ll obviously call him a bust. But should his career emulate or exceed Rajon Rondo’s then David Kahn will look like a genius.

If we normalize Rubio’s stat line to his entire league, however, could we perhaps get a more concrete player comparison? Barcelona’s top scorer was NBA castoff Juan Carlos Navarro at 15.7 PPG. The MVP was Dimitris Diamantidis of Panathinaikos (12.6 PPG, 6 APG). The EuroLeague’s top scorer? Keith Langford at 18.7 PPG for BC Khimki. On the Timberwolves Rubio would score closer to 8.5 PPG. Normalized to his new league’s top scorer, Rubio’s PPG would go up to around 11.5 PPG. His assist totals would move up to 6.8 per game. So essentially a reasonable – yet high – performance by Rubio for the 2011-2012 season (provided there is one) is somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 PPG and 6.8 APG. Those statistics would situate him at about 25^th among PGs for scoring, and about 13^th for assists. Certainly those numbers don’t light the world on fire. But they happen to situate Rubio’s statistical performance in league with both of the PGs from the NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks: Kidd 7.9 PPG, 8.2 APG, Barea 9.5 PPG, 3.9 APG. So maybe we should lay off ripping on Rubio until we’ve really figured out how the European game translates to the NBA. After all, didn’t most of the world just revise its view on “the best foreign-born player ever in the NBA”?[2]

More importantly, the statistics revolution in basketball has yet to solidify. Because baseball is a repeated series of one-on-on confrontations, advanced metrics have an intuitive and immediate validity. For basketball, however, we can’t yet be as certain.[3]

So what do we know? We know that an acceptable range of expectation for Rubio – according to the numbers – is from the unexceptional and confusing career of Shawne Williams to the championship pedigree of Rajon Rondo. More likely, his stats will compare to the indomitable Mario Chalmers, who appears to have the basketball IQ of a pancake.

Yet for those of us first exposed to Rubio in the 2008 Beijing Olympics Gold Medal Game, our Budweiser eyes told us something different. Despite 6 points on 1-3 shooting (4/4 FTs), 6 rebounds, and 3 assists, Rubio showed flashes of court command that rivaled Pete Maravich (there I go comparing again). So how do we reconcile our eyes and the numbers?

We don’t. If this year’s NBA Finals taught us anything it is that a whole slew of people can be wrong without anyone actually being right. Let’s not forget that Ricky Rubio is only 20 years old. Let us not forget that he’s about to play for a young, struggling, traditionally bad NBA franchise. Let’s just give the kid a break and let him play 20 games before we sell him up the river.

But if he turns out to be the basketball messiah, I have dibs on titling him “The Greatest Under-Seven-Foot Spanish Basketball Player Ever”.

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[1] Nevermind that by the end of the draft no one had any idea who the players were and the NBA teams were just picking cool names.

[2] The comedy of this title is unending. Dirk constantly outperformed the general media’s woefully ignorant expectations, only to be given this foolish and qualified title. It’s like winning an Oscar but constantly being asked how you enjoyed winning your Golden Globe.

[3] My personal belief is that the five-man unit stats compiled by 82games.com are so far the best metric for evaluating performance, but even that needs a tweak here or there.

Worst Call Ever?

by Pete

On Tuesday night I watched the Pittsburgh Pirates get screwed on the single worst blown call since Don Denkinger cost the Royals a World Series in 1982.[1] Yes, I’m well aware that Jim Joyce had a famous blown call last year. But let’s be honest, that particular biff happened to occur on the edge of another notch in baseball’s history books. A late July game between the Pirates and Braves that goes to the 19^th tied at three is great fodder for Sports Center – for about 20 seconds – and not much more.

At the time of my viewing of this particular game[2] my initial reaction was “Wow, I guess Jerry Meals really wanted to go home.” That was quickly followed by, “I’ll bet he thought McKenry’s swipe tag missed Lugo, that’s why he called him safe!” The former is probably the truth, the latter was part of Meals’s defense on Wednesday, and in the long run nothing will come of it.

And, honestly, nothing should. It was a bad call. It happens.

The main problem with the call is that it appears Meals is calling Lugo safe before he ever touches the plate. At best it’s a ‘bang-bang’ play, which means Meals was looking at the tag only. But, as many umps have admitted before, on tag plays it is not uncommon for a runner to be called out if the ball beats them there, regardless of the reality of the tag.

Meals himself gradually increased his error from “might have missed” to “missed” the call. The change of course came in the wake of MLB Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Joe Torre’s comments that Meals missed the call. This distinction is important, of course, because if I were Jerry Meals I would much rather avoid admitting my error and wait around for a public semi-reprimand from my employer. Toeing the company line in order to undermine your own authority is sooooooo 21^st century.

Umpires generally are under a lot of recent scrutiny. Major League Baseball often operates in a fluid space between ‘traditional’ and ‘antiquated’, and its flaws are often compared to game situations in basketball and football. Nevermind that the latter two are infinitely more TV friendly, the comparison dumbs the message down enough that a larger number of people can receive it. Baseball writers – Buster Olney sadly included – are once again calling for (expanded) replay, failing to understand that the hierarchy of concerns should be TV presentation then replay.[3] Again, ‘traditional’ or ‘antiquated’?

Criticism of officials, in fact, should probably be toned down. Based on the arguments put forth in the phenomenal book Scorecasting, officials are intentionally making calls that, in certain situations, allow the participating athletes to settle the conflict in the field of play. And I say more power to ‘em.

The Braves probably could care less about last night’s win since it cost them their starting catcher for the next three weeks at least. Who knew you could strain an oblique throwing a ball!?[4] While David Ross is a more than suitable replacement for Brian McCann as regards position, McCann seems to be the enjoyable glue that held a rollercoaster offense of lackluster personalities together.

Pirates president Frank Coonelly spewed the appropriate platitudes about how the Pirates “may have lost a game in the standings” but it “made the team stronger.” Or some such bullshit. Look Pirates fans, I hear you. I’m on your side. PNC Park might be the best-kept secret in baseball.[5] You wanted to win that game, dammit, and that’s okay! I know the media dragged on today with an “it could be worse” scenario as consolation. They’re right. It could be Steve Bartman. The Pirates have such a history of futility that if their season collapsed starting today no one would be surprised. Hey they might just be happy to know their team has a pulse again. But look at the big picture, Pirates fans. The NL Central is wide open, not good, and you’re in contention. The loss of Brian McCann could complicate things mightily for the Braves, widening the chase for the Wild Card. It really, literally could be worse. But if Jerry Meals is behind the plate for a Pirates elimination game sometime this season, it might be advisable to plunk the ump. You never know when he’ll get bored and want to go home.

Patrick Says: Bad calls happen in all sports, and fans get outraged and declare that the ump lost the game for their team. Never mind that in that 19th inning marathon 70 combined runners were left on base! Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez & Atlanta 3B Martin Prado stranded 7 & 8 respectively. So yeah, we all hate for our teams to lose after a horrible pass interference call with less than a minute to go, or a blown call at home, or a questionable foul call with less than 10 seconds to go, but in sports there are opportunities to make the plays necessary win the game throughout, and unfortunately sometimes the officials become part of the outcome.

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[1] Full disclosure: I’m a Yankee fan. Jeffrey Maier is not a real person, he was simply the spirit of Babe Ruth incarnate, and Tony Tarasco should have tried harder. It was a home run.

[2] No bull. I watched CC almost throw a no hitter, the end of the Red Sox/Royals slugfest, Tampa’s embarrassment in Oakland, and then when I found there was still a game on at one in the morning I had no choice but to continue watching baseball. I am my own MLB Fan Cave.

[3] Then jobs, then khakis, then you get the chicks.

[4] The irony of this is not lost on me. And we thought kicking water coolers was a bad idea.

[5] The double-best-kept secret is that there’s a Quaker Steak and Lube inside the park. If marrying Emma Watson doesn’t pan out soon I’m moving to Pittsburgh.

Lockout? What Lockout?

by Patrick Boucher

The NFL Lockout is over. The airwaves and Twittersphere are celebrating like it is Christmas. Reporters and ‘insiders’ are proclaiming “football is back.” I didn’t know it was gone. The Packers won the Super Bowl on Feb. 6th the preseason will start the second weekend in August (sorry Hall of Fame game), and the Packers will host the Saints on Sept. 8th. So, if football was gone, where did it go? The draft was still held. OK, so we missed free agency/minicamps/OTAs. Wow, what a tragedy. I really missed out on having ESPN show clips of Tom Brady throwing to Wes Welker in shorts and a t-shirt while Adam Schefter reports something inane like the Patriots are going to cut some 3rd string DE that you’ve never heard of.

But here is the thing about sports media (which is increasingly visible over Twitter) and the last 4+ months: They have loved every minute of this lockout. I follow the usual suspects on Twitter (profootballtalk, Trey Wingo, Rich Eisen, Adam Schefter, et al), having watched ESPN/NFL Network on and off since Monday, I have noticed that everyone is acting “relieved” that the lockout is over. As if the past few months have been some painful, grueling process for them. If you ask me, this 24/7 lockout/labor negotiation “reporting” – and I use that term loosely – has made work for these guys when there would normally just be a few months preparing for training camps and boring reporting like 32 teams in 32 days, or Mel Kiper’s draft grades or blah blah blah.

I would say there were about 5 people with any sense during this lockout: Jason Whitlock, Jay Glazer (who despite not bothering to report any of the “breakthroughs” during the whole process was the first to report the NFLPA approved the deal early this morning), Andrew Brandt (who is basically an NFL mouthpiece), Chris Mortenson (who is basically an ESPN mouthpiece, but did have the most accurate knowledge of anyone, along with John Clayton), and maybe Jason LaCanfora. Here’s the thing; everyone in today’s 24/7 news coverage cycle wants to be the first to predict something. How much of ESPN/NFL Network coverage is devoted to predictions? Each network pays people just to speculate on stuff: Where is this guy going? Who is going to get upset this week? Who will be drafted where? The lockout has been a huge vehicle for NFL reporters to whip it out and say “mine’s bigger.” Give me a break. I care about reality, not speculation, who reported it first, who has the most “inside connections.” I care about football being played on Sundays, and the Packers having a chance to defend their title. That is happening. We’re fine. Lets get on with it.

Jason Whitlock just tweeted on Monday: “Has anyone apologized for contributing to this Lockout Hysteria??” He has held the stance during this whole lockout (see: Jason Whitlock's appearance on PFT) that the mainstream NFL media and insider types are creating hysteria and drama around this lockout basically because they are worried that in the NFL misses games or loses popularity in the USA that they might not be making as much money themselves, because there will be nothing to report on.

My point is this, and I have held this since before last season was even over: The average NFL fan doesn’t care about the business side of football unless games are missed. I am a huge sports fan, and did not believe one bit this entire time that games would be missed. The NFL is not that stupid to allow games to be missed; there is too much money to be raked in. Most people really assumed that this would get figured out in July, and lo and behold, it has. All of this hysteria and doom and gloom talk about the labor situation really was only interesting to about 10% of the fan base. The NFL has hardcore fans, don’t get me wrong, but the way the last few months were reported was like the world would come to an end if a couple weeks of the season were missed. Calm down everyone, lets just get back to enjoying pro football for what it is: awesome entertainment.

Response by Pete:

Great point about the perceptions of “loss” during the lockout. I’ll admit I was actually fine with missing some preseason games – and even thought that might happen – but wasn’t going to be ultimately worried until regular season games were threatened. It will also be interesting if the News Powers That Be overreact to the NBA lockout in the same way. The ‘woe is me’ aspect works for both sports. With the NFL the woe was that there was even the slightest possibility that America would be deprived of its number one sport because the millionaires and billionaires couldn’t agree on dividing their giant piles of money. The NBA lockout carries the ominous weight of a broken system run by financially ignorant people. The complexities of the problem should garner legitimate reporting, so it will be very intriguing to see what hollow way the ‘journalists’ can amp up NBA discussion.

Oh yeah, the NFL will be going on, so I guess we won’t care until February. Nevermind.

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