NFL Playoff Predictions

(Also posted late.  So sue me.)

by Patrick and Pete

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Patrick: 

Green Bay (1) vs. New Orleans (3)

The NFL would love this.  September 8th opener comes down to a rematch in January for the right to go to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.  It is SO difficult to get back to the Super Bowl after winning it the year before.  This game would pit the last 2 Champs against each other on the most hallowed grounds in the NFL.  Dom Capers will outscheme Gregg Williams, and Mike McCarthy will let A-Rodg do his thing.  Charles Woodson and/or Nick Collings will make a couple huge picks, and BJ Raji and the defense will dirsupt the Saints game plan... nothing against Sean Payton and Drew Brees, but they are going to come up short vs. the class of the NFC.

New England Patriots (3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4)

The great rivalry of the 00s will come to a head in 2012 as Tom Brady & Bill Belicheck will host Peyton Manning and the Colts for the right to play in INDY for the NFL Championship.  Peyton Manning will have struggled though a difficult season marred by personal injury and the usual adversity that goes along with an NFL team.  Tom Brady and his offense will be clicking on all cylinders, and this January the defense will be another year more experienced and will make enough plays to give the Pats a victory and on to the Super Bowl.

Pete: 

Tampa Bay (6) @ Green Bay (1)

I am all in on the Buccaneers hype.  I know the world is expecting them to regress, but they haven’t changed much in the way of their roster.  Josh Freeman might be the ‘mobile’ quarterback that everyone had hoped Vince Young to be, and if Tampa can manage to figure out how to run outside the tackles they will test a Green Bay defense that has more holes than they’re willing to admit (and that can’t be covered by Clay Matthews’s hair).  Tampa shocks the world and wins in Lambeau 38-35.

Tennessee Titans (5) @ New York Jets (1)

I know it seems sacrilege to have two Wild Card teams rolling into championship weekend but I’m all in on the Titans.  The effects of the Chris Johnson holdout will only show for the first two or three games as he gets back into game shape and the Titans take advantage of a late season schedule filled with teams whose fates are already determined to clinch the first wildcard spot.

On the other hand, the Jets roll.  After throttling New England and the eminently handsome and awesome Tom Brady and his great hair twice the Jets stumble only once (Week 15 @ Philadelphia) on their way to a remarkable 15-1 season.  Despite the Titans’ remarkable run, the defense of the Jets, girth of Rex Ryan, newfound dedication of Plaxico Burress, and Mark Sanchez’s ability to not lose the game for his team[1] are too much for the young Titans who are forced to go to Jake Locker late in the game when Matt Hasselbeck’s back gives out one final time.  Jets hold on 22-17.

Super Bowl

Pete: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) @ New York Jets (AFC)

Line NYJ -10   O/U 41

The Jets go into Indianapolis as 10-point favorites, a line that polarizes the nation moreso than Team Edward/Team Jacob.  (Edward, duh.)  The last three teams to be favored in a Super Bowl by 10 points or more (’98 Packers -11, ’02 Rams -14, ’08 Patriots -12) have not only failed to cover but also lost the game outright.  Not this time.  The Jets defense scores once, gives Mark Sanchez and Super Bowl MVP Plaxico Burress (7 rec, 198 yds) phenomenal field position all game, and the Jets win.  However, thanks to a last second bomb by Josh Freeman the Buccaneers score a touchdown that results in a push(!!)[2] and Vegas promptly melts into oblivion.  Even in his moment of triumph Rex Ryan manages to ruin somebody’s party.  New York Jets 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.

Patrick:

Green Bay (NFC) vs. New England (AFC)

This would be a historic, epic Super Bowl.  A rematch of the 1996 game featuring star QBs Favre & Bledsoe and coaches Holmgren & Parcells.  All four men have had outstanding careers, but times have changed.  Mike McCarthy will have an opportunity to put himself in legendary status along with QB Aaron Rodges.  Bill Belichick is a man on a mission, along with Tom Brady as the core of this team.  The Packers want to be the team of the ‘10s.  New England was team of the ‘00s.  Who will be the future of the NFL?  I guess we’ll find out Feb. 5th.

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[1] I’m looking at you Alex Smith.  And Brett Favre.

[2] What?  The world’s ending next December anyway.  Might as well have some crazy shit happen wherever I can, right?  You should be more startled by the fact that I will end up on the Jumbotron of the Super Bowl when then-girlfriend Emma Watson is caught feeding me popcorn.

NFC North Preview

by Pete and Patrick

Green Bay Packers

Pete Says:  It breaks my heart, literally, to write this, but the Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFL.  They won a Super Bowl last year basically without a running game, shed some dead weight (read: Nick Barnett), realized Ryan Grant is a huge liability and are likely going to give the majority of the workload to James Starks, and get a semi-elite tight end back.  Fuck the Eagles, the Packers are phenomenally improved and they hardly had to spend any money!  The only questionable move they had was resigning James Jones (who could have easily gotten overpaid elsewhere).  As a Bears fan I’m praying that I can get James Jones in every fantasy league just so he can be that guy who sucks big time but you hold onto forever for no conceivable reason.  If you’re shopping early I’ll take booze for Christmas.

Patrick Says: The Super Bowl champs are in good position to make another deep playoff run.  The schedule is not particularly difficult, but it has become cliche to say “everyone gives a Super Bowl champ their best shot every week.”  The NFL is always a struggle, and Super Bowl champions usually lose some talent, and that has been the case this year with Nick Barnett, Cullen Jenkins & Brandon Jackson being some of the bigger name losses.  It has gotten to the point though where Packer fans trust Ted Thompsons’s rebuild through the draft approach, and the Packers have weapons galore around Aaron Rodgers, who is in my opinion the best quarterback in the NFL.  The keys to this team will be the offensive and defensive lines.  Left guard is a little iffy, and Clifton is not getting any younger.  BJ Raji is a bona fide stud, and Pickett is a solid vet, but behind them it is a lot of young guys trying to make an impact.  Despite stalwarts Nick Collins, Charles Woodson, & Tramon Williams there is some concern with the secondary.  Can Sam Shields & Jarrett Bush continue to develop?  Will Peprah or Burnett play safety opposite Collins?  These are questions most teams would like to have, and the Packers will win the division this year.

Detroit Lions

Pete Says: This is the uber-upside team.  Every piece of official Lions anything and every player except Ndomakung Suh should come with a Surgeon-General like warning that states outcomes are entirely contingent upon each player’s health but all bets are still action.  I shit you not that I can make a statistical case that Matthew Stafford’s best potential year would lead all QBs in the NFL.[1]  The problem is, this Motor City wet dream everyone’s having depends on more contingency factors that the path to humanoid multi-cellular life.  But can you image a healthy and rested Nick Fairley joining the Lions halfway through the season?!   The Lions biggest hole is consistency in running back production, but as the Packers showed last year teams can and do survive on passing alone.  At least for a while.

Patrick Says: It has become chic to say that the Lions will be the surprise playoff team in the NFC this year.  I’m not quite sure about that, but they’ll give it a run.  If Matt Stafford is healthy they have the weapons on offense to put up some points, especially considering they will have 11 dome games this year.  Calvin Johnson is probably the most talented receiver in the NFL.  Ndamakong Suh is a talent that I have never seen on the defensive interior (that includes you Julius Peppers).  Adding Fairely can’t hurt.  I’m not so sure about the rest of their defense, but they’ll win some games and get their fans excited again.  Playoffs might have to wait another year though.

Minnesota Vikings

Pete Says: The Vikings are going to be good because Donovan McNabb has a chip on his shoulder and Adrian Peterson is the toughest running back in the NFL.  Their dearth of elite wideout possibilities is about equal to last year[2] and it’s been proven that wide receivers don’t impact the game as much as believed because they are entirely dependent upon their QB to get them the ball and most can’t block for shit.[3]  The most insightful analysis I’ve heard on the departure of Ray Edwards was that leaving Minnesota might expose him as not very good.  And if Jared Allen and company don’t have to pick up his slack Minnesota’s defensive line could improve.  Their secondary still has more holes than Stringer Bell at the end of Season 3 of The Wire, though, so shoot for .500 Vikings fans.

Patrick Says: This is a transitional year in Minnesota.  Most Viking fans I know are glad that Leslie Frasier is running the show now.  The Brett Favre experiment is over, and Tarvaris Jackson is gone.  Here come Christian Ponder and Donovan McNabb.  Minnesota surprised everybody by grabbing Ponder in the 1st round.  Obviously they expect him to be their QB of the future.  Donovan McNabb is going to try to win now while the team waits for Ponder to develop.  Adrian Peterson is an outstanding football player, and the premier running back in the NFL.  Ironically, with their former Defensive Coordinator as the head coach now, it seems that the defense will be the weak spot of the team.  They’ve lost some key people, and that secondary gets torn apart against elite opponents.

Chicago Bears

Pete Says: My Bears are equal parts cheap uncle to a pro football team and Island of Misfits.  The Bears enjoy continuity, not success, so here we go for another round of Lovie Smith helping his friend Mike Martz try to sabotage Lovie’s career.  For this year’s incarnation of The Greatest Feaux on Earth Martz has tried to basically recreate the ’99-’01 Rams with the 2008 Dallas Cowboys plus a tough yet headstrong scrambler who holds the ball too long and still believes arm strength trumps accuracy.  Oh and this is occurring in Chicago, where if the wind at Soldier Field isn’t at least 25mph the fans are pretty sure the earth stopped rotating and the field was last resodded when Eisenhower was president.  Being notorious cheapskates will be a double edged sword for the Bears this year.  Quibbling over a paltry $500,000 with Olin Kreutz and then releasing him actually adds a modicum of stability to the offensive line, but refusing to give a raise to 6-time Pro Bowler Lance Briggs – who also just happens to be the best defensive player (sorry Julius Peppers) – will wreak havoc on a defense that looked to be both stable and improved going into the preseason.  7-9 here we come.

Patrick Says: The Bears will be another casualty of playoff team turnover on a year to year basis in the NFL.  The NFC North & South play each other this year and will beat each other up.  The Bears have signed ex-Cowboys Roy Williams and Marion Barber.  While those players were often viewed as underachievers in Dallas, I think they fit well with the Bears.  The defensive line is very good, so good in fact that they signed ex-Jets bust Vernon Gholston because they can afford to.  I will never discount the Bears’ LB corps, but I am still not sure about the secondary.  The breaks will go against Chicago this year though, and the fans will be after Cutler again.

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[1] This case also argues for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colt McCoy in the top 5 and Peyton Manning 15^th.  Is it flawed?  Probably.  Or genius and revolutionary. 

[2] Sidney Rice missed so much time he was almost a footnote on the 2010 season (ha ha). 

[3] Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White are the top three wide receivers in some order.  Combined they have 8 postseason appearances and 6 are Fitzgerald’s.  White got bounced in ’08 and again in 2010 and Johnson has never made the playoffs because he’s never played with a good quarterback.