NFL Playoff Predictions

(Also posted late.  So sue me.)

by Patrick and Pete

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Patrick: 

Green Bay (1) vs. New Orleans (3)

The NFL would love this.  September 8th opener comes down to a rematch in January for the right to go to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.  It is SO difficult to get back to the Super Bowl after winning it the year before.  This game would pit the last 2 Champs against each other on the most hallowed grounds in the NFL.  Dom Capers will outscheme Gregg Williams, and Mike McCarthy will let A-Rodg do his thing.  Charles Woodson and/or Nick Collings will make a couple huge picks, and BJ Raji and the defense will dirsupt the Saints game plan... nothing against Sean Payton and Drew Brees, but they are going to come up short vs. the class of the NFC.

New England Patriots (3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4)

The great rivalry of the 00s will come to a head in 2012 as Tom Brady & Bill Belicheck will host Peyton Manning and the Colts for the right to play in INDY for the NFL Championship.  Peyton Manning will have struggled though a difficult season marred by personal injury and the usual adversity that goes along with an NFL team.  Tom Brady and his offense will be clicking on all cylinders, and this January the defense will be another year more experienced and will make enough plays to give the Pats a victory and on to the Super Bowl.

Pete: 

Tampa Bay (6) @ Green Bay (1)

I am all in on the Buccaneers hype.  I know the world is expecting them to regress, but they haven’t changed much in the way of their roster.  Josh Freeman might be the ‘mobile’ quarterback that everyone had hoped Vince Young to be, and if Tampa can manage to figure out how to run outside the tackles they will test a Green Bay defense that has more holes than they’re willing to admit (and that can’t be covered by Clay Matthews’s hair).  Tampa shocks the world and wins in Lambeau 38-35.

Tennessee Titans (5) @ New York Jets (1)

I know it seems sacrilege to have two Wild Card teams rolling into championship weekend but I’m all in on the Titans.  The effects of the Chris Johnson holdout will only show for the first two or three games as he gets back into game shape and the Titans take advantage of a late season schedule filled with teams whose fates are already determined to clinch the first wildcard spot.

On the other hand, the Jets roll.  After throttling New England and the eminently handsome and awesome Tom Brady and his great hair twice the Jets stumble only once (Week 15 @ Philadelphia) on their way to a remarkable 15-1 season.  Despite the Titans’ remarkable run, the defense of the Jets, girth of Rex Ryan, newfound dedication of Plaxico Burress, and Mark Sanchez’s ability to not lose the game for his team[1] are too much for the young Titans who are forced to go to Jake Locker late in the game when Matt Hasselbeck’s back gives out one final time.  Jets hold on 22-17.

Super Bowl

Pete: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) @ New York Jets (AFC)

Line NYJ -10   O/U 41

The Jets go into Indianapolis as 10-point favorites, a line that polarizes the nation moreso than Team Edward/Team Jacob.  (Edward, duh.)  The last three teams to be favored in a Super Bowl by 10 points or more (’98 Packers -11, ’02 Rams -14, ’08 Patriots -12) have not only failed to cover but also lost the game outright.  Not this time.  The Jets defense scores once, gives Mark Sanchez and Super Bowl MVP Plaxico Burress (7 rec, 198 yds) phenomenal field position all game, and the Jets win.  However, thanks to a last second bomb by Josh Freeman the Buccaneers score a touchdown that results in a push(!!)[2] and Vegas promptly melts into oblivion.  Even in his moment of triumph Rex Ryan manages to ruin somebody’s party.  New York Jets 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.

Patrick:

Green Bay (NFC) vs. New England (AFC)

This would be a historic, epic Super Bowl.  A rematch of the 1996 game featuring star QBs Favre & Bledsoe and coaches Holmgren & Parcells.  All four men have had outstanding careers, but times have changed.  Mike McCarthy will have an opportunity to put himself in legendary status along with QB Aaron Rodges.  Bill Belichick is a man on a mission, along with Tom Brady as the core of this team.  The Packers want to be the team of the ‘10s.  New England was team of the ‘00s.  Who will be the future of the NFL?  I guess we’ll find out Feb. 5th.

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[1] I’m looking at you Alex Smith.  And Brett Favre.

[2] What?  The world’s ending next December anyway.  Might as well have some crazy shit happen wherever I can, right?  You should be more startled by the fact that I will end up on the Jumbotron of the Super Bowl when then-girlfriend Emma Watson is caught feeding me popcorn.

AFC South Preview

by Patrick and Pete

Patrick Says: They have a difficult schedule. Their star QB is hurt for pretty much the first time in his career, but he’ll be ok by the regular season. If they don’t lose every one of their receivers this year again, I see them pulling the division out like they always do. That’s what the Peyton Manning Colts do, I’ll give them that.

Pete Says: As the media has recently revealed, the possibility of Peyton Manning missing a game is obviously a sure sign of the impending apocalypse. How the world will function with out the QB foil to (the superhandsome) Tom Brady might be the greatest mystery since “How did Antoine Walker actually spend 100 million dollars?” Needless to say, the Colts are actually a very good team even without Peyton Manning. That’s right, I said it. In fact, the Colts have the talent to produce top-10 seasons at all the offensive skill positions even if they miss out on Manning for a game or two. Moreover, they used their abbreviated offseason to sign defensive help like Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson.[1] Anderson may be past his prime, but Harris could wreak havoc lining up next to Dwight Freeney, Tommie just needs to stay healthy.

Patrick Says: They have a quarterback. They have a stud WR & productive RB. They have young talent on defense. They focused on defense in the draft. They missed out on Asomugha, but did sign Jonathan Joseph from the Bengals. I just can’t give them a 10 win season quite yet. They always seem to blow games they shouldn’t, and I am not convinced that Schaub is much more than a good Madden QB. Some are predicting this is their year to take it from Indianapolis, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Pete Says: Houston will be hot on Indy’s tail for the top of the division, especially considering they open the year against the Colts who might be without Peyton Manning for that game. Having a late-season bye (Week 11) and a rather favorable projection for their last 6 games, the Texans should be able to take advantage of these things even if Arian Foster is not entirely healthy. Even though he’s only played 22 NFL games, Foster projects to demolish the competition this year, and a solid running game will help hide how bad a quarterback Matt Schaub really is. The Texans have gotten away with running a spread offense that looks a lot like the ones you see during college football games because the lack of complexity is actually enhanced by the stunning athleticism at the skill positions. Like the Steelers and Jets, the Texans team remains pretty consistent: their biggest loss is probably fullback Vonta Leach, Gary Kubiak inexplicably returned as coach, and the addition of ex-Bear Danieal Manning to the defensive backfield might allow Houston to set a world record for missed tackles. Bet the over every week and the over for Houston’s win total (9) and you will be able to throw a killer watch party for the Texans’ first round playoff exit.

Patrick Says: Another shaky QB situation in Jacksonville, as Garrard is on his way out as a legitimate NFL starter so the team drafted Blaine Gabbert. Their offense revolves around MJD, which is not bad, but that’s not going to win a division. And their defense surely won’t. Just try to avoid the “moving to LA” talk.

Pete Says: The Jaguars biffed on drafting Tim Tebow last year so to make up for it (since they were obviously the only ones who didn’t think Tim Tebow playing pro ball in Florida could sell tickets) they took Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert, like almost all other QBs from this year’s draft (Andy Dalton excluded), has a set of sills with discernable holes. He is not a better player than David Garrard. Maurice Jones-Drew is (supposedly) healthy, but the wideouts and defensive core are still shaky. The Jaguars’ schedule is also rather unforgiving, so a 6 or 7 win season is likely best-case scenario.

Patrick Says: Another AFC South team in transition. Jeff Fisher is gone. So are Kerry Collins & Vince Young (ok, that might be a good thing). Chris Johnson is holding out. Matt Hasselbeck is bald. Jake Locker couldn't complete 55 % of his passes in college. Can you say, “rebuilding year”? See if you can put an NFL team together by the time Peyton Manning retires, how about that.

Pete Says: Chris Johnson’s holdout and resultant missed preseason games are actually the least of Tennessee’s worries. The departure of Jeff Fisher and any semblance of good defenders (other than middle linebacker Barrett Ruud and professional antagonist Cortland Finnegan) has withered a formerly formidable Titan’s defense. The fact that Tennessee was able to improve their quarterback situation with the signing of a 35 year-old Matt Hasselbeck is alternate parts sad and funny, but it is actually good news for 8^th overall pick Jake Locker. Regardless of his completion percentage issues, he has the possibility of becoming a very good pro quarterback. In fact, there are knowledgeable scouts that compare Locker’s potential to that of a certain Southern Mississippi Golden Eagle QB of the late ‘80s. In case you’re wondering, Brett Favre’s collegiate completion percentage was 52.4%. Potential aside, though, the Titans will need much better weapons at receiver if they hope to return to playoff contention. Nate Washington is inconsistent and Kenny Britt is obviously insane, so it should be an interesting year in Nashville. I’ve said it before multiple times, but teams with continuity issues aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt this year and that’s why I have Tennessee brining up the rear in the AFC South.

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[1] A move that Mike Lombardi criticized (!) on the 8/31 edition of the B.S. Report. Lombardi’s criticism confused me, as I thought the point of free agency was to get better at positions where you needed help. But what do I know, I was never a Raiders GM who lucked into one of Rich Gannon’s two good years en route to a Super Bowl loss.