NFL Playoff Predictions

(Also posted late.  So sue me.)

by Patrick and Pete

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Patrick: 

Green Bay (1) vs. New Orleans (3)

The NFL would love this.  September 8th opener comes down to a rematch in January for the right to go to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.  It is SO difficult to get back to the Super Bowl after winning it the year before.  This game would pit the last 2 Champs against each other on the most hallowed grounds in the NFL.  Dom Capers will outscheme Gregg Williams, and Mike McCarthy will let A-Rodg do his thing.  Charles Woodson and/or Nick Collings will make a couple huge picks, and BJ Raji and the defense will dirsupt the Saints game plan... nothing against Sean Payton and Drew Brees, but they are going to come up short vs. the class of the NFC.

New England Patriots (3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4)

The great rivalry of the 00s will come to a head in 2012 as Tom Brady & Bill Belicheck will host Peyton Manning and the Colts for the right to play in INDY for the NFL Championship.  Peyton Manning will have struggled though a difficult season marred by personal injury and the usual adversity that goes along with an NFL team.  Tom Brady and his offense will be clicking on all cylinders, and this January the defense will be another year more experienced and will make enough plays to give the Pats a victory and on to the Super Bowl.

Pete: 

Tampa Bay (6) @ Green Bay (1)

I am all in on the Buccaneers hype.  I know the world is expecting them to regress, but they haven’t changed much in the way of their roster.  Josh Freeman might be the ‘mobile’ quarterback that everyone had hoped Vince Young to be, and if Tampa can manage to figure out how to run outside the tackles they will test a Green Bay defense that has more holes than they’re willing to admit (and that can’t be covered by Clay Matthews’s hair).  Tampa shocks the world and wins in Lambeau 38-35.

Tennessee Titans (5) @ New York Jets (1)

I know it seems sacrilege to have two Wild Card teams rolling into championship weekend but I’m all in on the Titans.  The effects of the Chris Johnson holdout will only show for the first two or three games as he gets back into game shape and the Titans take advantage of a late season schedule filled with teams whose fates are already determined to clinch the first wildcard spot.

On the other hand, the Jets roll.  After throttling New England and the eminently handsome and awesome Tom Brady and his great hair twice the Jets stumble only once (Week 15 @ Philadelphia) on their way to a remarkable 15-1 season.  Despite the Titans’ remarkable run, the defense of the Jets, girth of Rex Ryan, newfound dedication of Plaxico Burress, and Mark Sanchez’s ability to not lose the game for his team[1] are too much for the young Titans who are forced to go to Jake Locker late in the game when Matt Hasselbeck’s back gives out one final time.  Jets hold on 22-17.

Super Bowl

Pete: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) @ New York Jets (AFC)

Line NYJ -10   O/U 41

The Jets go into Indianapolis as 10-point favorites, a line that polarizes the nation moreso than Team Edward/Team Jacob.  (Edward, duh.)  The last three teams to be favored in a Super Bowl by 10 points or more (’98 Packers -11, ’02 Rams -14, ’08 Patriots -12) have not only failed to cover but also lost the game outright.  Not this time.  The Jets defense scores once, gives Mark Sanchez and Super Bowl MVP Plaxico Burress (7 rec, 198 yds) phenomenal field position all game, and the Jets win.  However, thanks to a last second bomb by Josh Freeman the Buccaneers score a touchdown that results in a push(!!)[2] and Vegas promptly melts into oblivion.  Even in his moment of triumph Rex Ryan manages to ruin somebody’s party.  New York Jets 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.

Patrick:

Green Bay (NFC) vs. New England (AFC)

This would be a historic, epic Super Bowl.  A rematch of the 1996 game featuring star QBs Favre & Bledsoe and coaches Holmgren & Parcells.  All four men have had outstanding careers, but times have changed.  Mike McCarthy will have an opportunity to put himself in legendary status along with QB Aaron Rodges.  Bill Belichick is a man on a mission, along with Tom Brady as the core of this team.  The Packers want to be the team of the ‘10s.  New England was team of the ‘00s.  Who will be the future of the NFL?  I guess we’ll find out Feb. 5th.

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[1] I’m looking at you Alex Smith.  And Brett Favre.

[2] What?  The world’s ending next December anyway.  Might as well have some crazy shit happen wherever I can, right?  You should be more startled by the fact that I will end up on the Jumbotron of the Super Bowl when then-girlfriend Emma Watson is caught feeding me popcorn.

NFC South Preview

by Pete and Patrick

Atlanta Falcons

Pete Says: The Falcons have the proper, self-promotional buzz to be the Greatest Show on Turf Redux.  Moreover they have the personnel to do it.  The draft-day trade that landed Julio Jones raised a multitude of eyebrows, but heading into the start of the season the move seems to be carefully planned.  Atlanta knew they needed another receiver to free up Roddy White even more and they went and got the best guy they could be sure would be on their roster once the ‘lockout’ was over.  Adding Ray Edwards on defense could add to the Falcon’s abysmal pass rush, but as I wrote earlier it could also expose Ray Edwards as not that good.  Regardless, though, Atlanta plays in a division where the possible best-case scenario for every team would be the playoffs (and yes I’m willing to put Carolina in that group).  The Falcons have the needed pieces to be great, though, and I’ve got them winning this division.

Patrick Says: The big headline here is the big move they made in the draft to move up and get Julio Jones.  They lost Michael Jenkins in free agency, so Roddy White, Harry Douglas, and Julio Jones will be the primary targets of Matt Ryan.  Matt Ryan is a very accurate passer and a good decision maker, as evidenced by his 28-9 TD/INT ratio last year.  One of the underrated signings of the Free Agency period was Ray Edwards by Atlanta.  He was productive DE alongside the big Williams tackles in Minnesota, and now he is expected to bolster the Falcon pass run opposite John Abraham.  The big weakness in Atlanta is the secondary, as evidenced by Aaron Rodgers’ dismantling of the Falcons in the playoffs last year.  They need to find a solid nickel back to be a legitimate contender it today’s pass happy NFL, especially in this division with their schedule.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pete Says: While the majority of sports media talking heads are picking Tampa Bay to regress because of their felonious disposition and a weak offensive line I’m all in with the Bucs.  Josh Freeman is a modern hybrid that reminds me of the Randall Cunningham of my youth.  LeGarrette Blount is a good story of a young man who was obviously troubled but has found success.  Moreover, the Buccaneers are stacked with young talent that could explode at any moment and take advantage of a schedule that is neither significantly favorable nor unfavorable.  Don’t be surprised to see Tampa Bay challenging for the South crown late into the season.  My bold prediction for this season is that Tampa Bay will win at least one playoff game.

Patrick Says: I’m going to preface this by saying this division is a crapshoot.  Historically, a different team wins this division every year, which jives with the NFL trend that there is 50% turnover each year in playoff teams.  So, this tells me that either Atlanta or New Orleans are not making the playoffs.  There’s going to be a log jam at the top of this division, and I can’t really see any team winning more than 10 games.  The oddsmakers see it about the same way, although they aren’t as high on Tampa Bay as I am, although a lot of that is a gut feeling based on the historic up and down swings of the NFC South.

I see another 10-6 season in the cards for Tampa, however this time it will get them a playoff berth.  Part of me thinks last season was kind of a fluke.  Freeman only threw 6 picks, and LeGarrette (I like to punch people) Blount rushed for 1000 yards.  But it really seems like Freeman is the real deal.  He keeps the team in the game, and makes big plays when necessary.  The team seems to be working well with coach Raheem Morris and they seem to be building another good defense.  I really like the picks of Adrian Clayborn & Da’Quan Bowers at DE from this April’s draft.  

New Orleans Saints

Pete Says: New Orleans has cast off the underwhelming spectre of Reggie Bush in favor of rookie Mark Ingram, a more traditional tailback.  The Saints’ offense remains reliant on Drew Brees but is also still a bit gimmicky.  Ingram had an excellent preseason and he will be able to help the Saints score more efficiently.  If New Orleans hopes to avenge their playoff embarrassment at the hands of Seattle, though, their defense will have to be more consistent. 

Patrick Says: I see the Saints as being the odd man out this year in the division.  I like their roster, especially on offense.  Drew Brees is an elite quarterback.  They have playmakers on offense.  I am not really worried about Bush leaving, and the Ingram pick was nice.  Gregg Williams is a good defensive coordinator, and he does well with what he has.  Unfortunately their lack of a big time pass rusher on the defensive line usually means they have to gamble with exotic blitzes and the like.  They make a lot of plays, but they give up a lot too.  Good teams will take advantage, and they play a lot of good teams in 2011.

Carolina Panthers

Pete Says: At the beginning of the year I was excited to tear into Carolina for their foolish offseason expenditures.  That was before they hired Ron Rivera, stole Greg Olsen from the Bears, and managed to make (S)Cam Newton look at least as good as Tarvaris Jackson.  The insane decisions to overpay average-to-good defensive players has already been covered well by Grantland’s Bill Barnwell, but also deserves mention.  I’m afraid to say it, but if the league sleeps on Carolina they could be this year’s worst to first story.

Patrick Says: They had the number one pick this year, and I don’t know if that will change.  People are talking about Cam Newton, but expect struggles if he starts this year.  They have a decent O line, and resigned DeAngelo Williams to go along with Jonathan Stewart so they should be able to run the ball.  They resigned Charles Johnson, who really shined after Julius Peppers left.  I’m not a big fan of the linebacking corps, and their DB group, but what do I know.  I will tell you what I do know is that they have too difficult a schedule this year to eke out more than 3 or 4 wins.