NFL Draft

This is my attempt at an amateur/fan breakdown of the first few rounds of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Let's go for winners/losers (like I have a clue).

Winner:

Indianapolis: The Colts were 30th in the League in offense last year, 27th in passing.  So what did they do? Took advantage of their horrible 2011 and drafted the best QB prospect in 10-15 years in Andrew Luck.  And then, why not grab his TE Coby Fleener?  Then throw in another TE from Clemson & a speedster type WR from FIU and it is time to score some points and rebuild the offense around Andrew.

Loser:

Cleveland Browns:  Shocking, I know.  The most poorly run franchise since their rebirth in 1999, the Browns seemed to make some of the same old mistakes under Mike Holmgren.  Trading up one spot to grab Trent Richardson?  What?  OK, so obviously Minnesota put up smoke signals that other teams were clamouring for that spot, but giving up 3 picks to move up one position to draft a running back that will probably be injured and out of the league in 3 years?  Speaking of out the league in 3 years, the Browns picked Brandon Weeden, a 457 year old QB out of Oklahoma State.  He played in a spread offense in the Big 12 (stop me if you've heard this before... Chase Daniel, Kliff Kingsbury, Graham Harrell, Blaine Gabbert, Vince Young, Colt McCoy...) But hey, at least they might reach 8 wins the next 3 years... if they're lucky.

Loser:

Miami Dolphins: I want to give them credit, I really do.  They have been a horrible franchise since Dan Marino retired.  But speaking of bad Big 12 QBs, they take one of the worst, Ryan Tannehill.  Seriously, why are you drafting an ex-WR who had one good season (if you consider leading a talented/underachieving team to a 6-6 record "good) in the top 10?  Oh, you like his combine workout?  Get serious.  Haven't people learned from JaMarcus Russell?  The really hilarious thing about it is he is probably not even better than Matt Moore, who actually played OK last year.  Seems like they have solidified their O & D lines in the 2nd-3rd rounds, but honestly, do you believe in the Dolphins? I know they have a new coaching staff, but until I see otherwise it is the same old same old in South Florida.

Winner:

St. Louis Rams: They traded out of the top 5 and still grabbed an absolute beast in LSU DT Michael Brockers.  Then started snatching skill positions in the 2nd & 3rd rounds.  Brian Quick, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, & Trumaine Johnson should all provide depth and hopefully immediate impact across the offensive & defensive backfield.  I trust & believe in Jeff Fisher and believe the Rams have made solid moves toward the future.

3-5 Years from now, I will be wrong as hell.

The best players I've ever seen.  Top 100 by NFL Network has been a fun thing to watch the past few years.  First they did all time, then, of 2011.  Well, I'm 29, so lets do the ones I remember, circa 1990 and onward.  I will factor in prior to 1990 accomplishments to some extent, but in general, I'm talking about the best players my eyes have laid eyes upon, so Walter Payton, Lawrence Taylor, Dan Marino, even Joe Montana will not be on this list.  

1. Reggie White

This is probably because of my prejudice as a Packers fan, but Reggie White is the single greatest NFL Player I've ever seen play.  There are a couple ways I view this.  The first is because in the 80s and 90s he did things that no player has ever done in history at his position.  You know all those famous Reggie White moves? The club, the swim, the bull rush... etc?  Who does that now? Dwight Freeney? James Harrison? Julius Peppers? Ndamakong Suh?  Maybe each has a weapon at their disposal, but not all three.  And most people would agree without question that today's athletes are better than those of 20 years ago.  So why don't you see anyone rock a Left Tackle back and club him to the ground with his forearm anymore? I'll tell you why, because Reggie White is out of the NFL (and dead, unfortunately, but that's a different story).  The other reason why he is the greatest is because of when he did these things.  On 3rd down, in the 4th quarter, with the other team driving, he got these sacks (198 1/2 to be exact) not just in garbage time or on 1st and 10 in the first quarter.  The crowd would change "Reggie, Reggie, Reggie!" and he would come through.  Everyone knew he was coming, but no one could stop him.  Oh, and on a side note, he played EVERY DOWN. Later on his career he took some downs off, but for the most part he stuffed the run just as well as he rushed the passer.  Just ask my #5 player.

2. Jerry Rice.

Most people have this man #1, and for good reason.  He is the greatest WR, and maybe offensive player of all time.  Famous for his conditioning and hard offseason work he put in every year in the Bay Area, he was so good for so long that you almost took it for granted, especially towards the end of his career when he played for the Raiders (and briefly the Seahawks).  He won 3 Super Bowls, and played in another with the Raiders in 2002.  He has pretty much every career receiving record, as well as single season records.  In the strike shortened season of 1987 he had 22 TD receptions in 12 GAMES a record that stood until Randy Moss had 23 in the Patriots video game season of 2007.  footnote - Interesting that Reggie White had 21 sacks in that same 12 game season.  Absolutely ridiculous.  A class act and a competitor, and one of the greatest of all time.

3. Ray Lewis 

One thing is for sure.  The Ravens #52 is the greatest murder suspect of all time.  Seriously though, this guy is unbelievable.  Middle Linebacker is a hallowed position in the NFL.  Butkus, Nitschke, Bednarik, Huff, Lambert... (I'm sure I'm missing a few...) but Ray Lewis is right up there with those guys.  He is an all time great, and a rarity in today's game, he has played his whole career for one team.  He is the Baltimore Ravens.  He was the 2nd player they ever drafted on their team (behind Jonathan Ogden, another future hall of famer who may be on this list).  He is a 12 time probowler, 2 time Defensive POY, Super Bowl Champion & MVP, and a true leader of men.  He, and the defense he was part of, was so good in 2000 that he has influenced a decade of misconception about the NFL.  There is a school of thought out there that if you have an excellent defense, and an ok QB/offense, you can win a Super Bowl like the '00 Ravens (or to a lesser extent '02 Bucs.)  Well that school of thought is wrong for one reason.  No other team has Ray Lewis.  Don't bother trying to copy that formula, because it won't work, because you don't have Ray Lewis.  

4. Brett Favre

Too low for the greatest QB I've ever seen? Am I prejudiced once again by my Packers fandom? Maybe on both counts.  Is it unfair to say that if they would have beaten the Cowboys in 1994 or 1995, or beaten Denver Super Bowl XXXII, not lost the 4th & 26 game, or beaten the Giants in January of '08, or the Saints in January of '10 that Favre might be #1, not on this list, but on all?  Maybe a little.  Those teams were either young, or suspect defensively, or just got beaten by the better team at the time.  But for all of Favre's greatness, which trust me, goes on and on, there is always this wonder if there could have been more.  Which is absurd for a guy who won 3 MVPs, won a Super Bowl, went to 6 NFC Championship games, and holds most career passing records, plus the famous consecutive starts streak, which cannot be overstated.  NFL Players don't play 18 seasons in a row without missing a game.  Brett Favre did.  And he was unbelievable in doing it.  One of the things I will always remember about him is how he elevated the play of the offensive players around him.  Look at Sidney Rice.  He has been average at best every year except the year he played with Favre, when he was one of the best 5 WRs in the league.  Need I say more?

5. Barry Sanders

The best running back I've ever seen.  The position has been devalued in some ways over the years with the prominence of the passing game, and the short careers running backs tend to have.  But Barry Sanders was a dynamic, explosive, game breaking player, on average teams for a decade.  He retired as the 2nd leading rusher of all time, and left me breathless on more than one occasion.  Do I really need to go on about his ankle breaking, defender embarrassing runs, which often followed 1 or 2 yard losses?  We know the story.  This guy was the greatest pure running back of the modern era, but he unfortunately played for the Detroit Lions during the Wayne Fontes era.  Oh well, he is the highest player on this list without a Super Bowl, and his game defied logic and understanding.

6. Peyton Manning

I may have put Brady here before this season, but this 2-14 season by the Colts cemented in my mind what I have pretty much known most of the past decade.  Much like the 90s/mid 00s Packers, the Indianapolis Colts are 100% about their quarterback.  So much so that without him they can barely win a game without him.  When Manning is on the field the Colts are a feared opponent, explosive, efficient, and tough at the same time.  They have been a perennial playoff team, with one man at the helm.  He is famous for calling most of his own plays, checking constantly, and seemingly waving around like a frantic spaz at the line of scrimmage.  But he is the general as John Gruden would say, directing his troops into battle.  Without him the team is lost.  I am anxious to see one of the greatest to ever line up play again soon.  Who this will be with is going to be the most fascinating story of the offseason (hint: Arizona/Minnesota/Miami and dark horse San Francisco).

7. Tom Brady

Brady is one of the great stories of all time.  Most other players on this list were 1st round picks, and highly touted prospects.  Even Rice, who went to Mississippi Valley State was 16th overall.  Favre, a second round pick, was drafted 32nd, and Wolf gave up a first rounder for him when he became GM for the Packers.  Everyone knows how everyone passed on Brady, all the way to pick 199 in the 6th round in '00.  He has kept that chip on his shouder, worked hard, and has a great working relationship with the great coach Bill Belichick.  This has led to 3 Super Bowl championships, the only undefeated regular season since 1972, and unanimous MVP honors in 2010.  In contrast to Manning, people like to point out that the season that Brady was injured the Patriots still went 11-5.  The Patriots have a great system and throughout the 00s had loads of talent, but that does not diminish the greatness of Brady.

8. Marshall Faulk

Is this a little high? Maybe. But honestly, think about it.  Do you remember a better overall offensive weapon in your lifetime?  He had 4 straight 2000 yd seasons, 1 with the Colts, during Peyton Manning's rookie season, and 3 straight with the Rams & the greatest show on turf.  He was the best player on some of the best offenses of all time, went to 2 Super Bowls, won one, was a rookie of the year, and a two time NFL MVP.  In his first season with the Rams, the unbelievable 1999 year, he became the 2nd player in NFL history to have over 1000 yards receiving and rushing in the same year.  Wow.  He pretty much made fantasy football fun if you were lucky enough to draft him for 8 or 9 years (ok, maybe that's not a real reason, but damn!) and is a hall of famer.  

9. Walter Jones

It's about time for an offensive lineman.  I cannot go on and on about how great an O lineman is like I can other positions, but let me tell you, for about 4-5 years in the mid 00s he was considered a top 3 player in the game by those who know (John Madden referred to him as the NFL's best player in 2004, and the Sporting News ranked him #1 overall in 2006).  He started 180 straight games for Seattle at Left Tackle starting in his rookie year, and excelled.  He was a 9 time Pro Bowler, 7 time All Pro, and along with Steve Hutchinson paved the way for Shaun Alexander's great run from 2003-2005, culminating with the 1880 yard, 28 TD season in '05.  That team also went to Super Bowl XL against the Steelers.  The fact that Jones received this kind of recognition for that long in Seattle says something.  Greatness gets noticed, and Walter Jones was great.

10. Randy Moss

Randy Moss is so hard to judge from a historical point of view for a few reasons.  First of all, this is his first year out of the league.  Second, he was known for being moody, and not necessarily (ahem) going all out on every play.  Third, he played in the more passing oriented era, when so many other receivers (ie. Marvin Harrision, Terrell Owens) were putting up huge numbers as well.  But I know what I see, and Randy Moss was one of the best 10 football players I've ever seen.  He affected each game he suited up in more than any WR I've seen.  Just him lining up caused defenses to change their entire game plan to figure out how to cover him.  It didn't matter though.  From the moment he burst on the scene in 1998 he made huge play after huge play.  His run from 98-03 was absurd.  It didn't matter who the Vikings lined up at QB, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Brad Johnson, Daunte Culpepper or Gus Frerrote, Moss put up numbers and made that offense dynamic.  He has been on the 2 greatest offenses of all time, the '98 Vikings, and the '07 Patriots.  Coincidence? I don't think so.  When Moss is "right" he is one of the greatest offensive weapons of all time.

So... Can I come up with a top 20 or 50 or 100? Maybe, but the next 5 or 6 are difficult.  Troy Aikman, Deion Sanders, Jonathan Ogden, LaDanian Tomlinson, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Brian Urlacher, Willie Roaf, Steve Young, Terrell Owens, Warren Sapp, and John Elway are some of the ones that come to mind right away.

 Obviously we have been privileged to see so many good QBs.  Obviously Joe Montana & Dan Marine are 2 of the greatest ever.  I haven't mentioned Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, or Eli Manning, or such mainstays as Chad Pennington, Vinny Testaverde, Jim Kelly, Rich Gannon, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, or Philip Rivers.  

And what about WRs?  Cris Carter and Tim Brown are having a hard time making the HOF.  Andre Reed was the best WR on 4 Super Bowl (losing) teams, and probably has no chance of making it.  Marvin Harrison has the most receptions in a single season of all time.  Hines Ward has the most receptions in Steelers' history.  Donald Driver has passed all of James Lofton/Sterling Sharpe's records.  And what about TEs?  Tony Gonzales?  Unbelievable.  and it has gotten better in recent years.  Antonio Gates followed in his footsteps, and then Jimmy Graham & Rob Gronkowski both just passed the single season record for receiving yards in a season.

Greatness is very difficult to judge, and the more the NFL leans towards protecting receivers, and especially QBs, the more difficult it is going to be to judge people against history.  But the point of this post is this: I know when I see greatness, and this is how I see it.  Argue with me if you like, I'm sure there are other good opinions out there.

Super Bowl

My take on this Super Bowl is that no matter who wins, our 24 hour non stop media crazy, social network society will make the following ridiculous, short-sighted generalizations.

1. New England Wins

Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time.  Bill Belicheck is the greatest coach of all time.  Now, NFL Network/ESPN "analysts" will declare you don't need a defense or running game to win in the NFL, go ahead and start a wide receiver at nickel back, because if you have a top 5 QB, and a bunch of white guys, you're set.

Tom Coughlin's job will be on the line again.  Osi Umenyora is disgruntled, Brandon Jacobs is disgruntled, Victor Cruz and JPP hold out.  The "is Eli Manning elite?" question will be again over New York radio and Twitter.  All the questions about how horrible New York's secondary is come up.

2. New York Wins

Tom Brady is the most overrated quarterback of all time.  He only won Super Bowls when he was more of a game manager and had guys like David Patten and Mike Vrabel to throw to.  Bill Belicheck can't win without Romeo Crennel coordinating and Tedi Bruschi, the heart of the early 00s defense.  Gronkowski's ankle was a problem.  Cutting a 6th string WR (Tiquan Underwood) the day before the game was a distraction.

Eli Manning is better than Peyton Manning now.  In fact, he is better than Tom Brady, who he has beaten twice in Super Bowls.  Tom Coughlin is like the Phil Jackson of the NFL.  He takes a group of start athletes who all don't give any effort the entire year, and molds them into a team that cares for about 6 weeks and goes on a crazy run to win championships.  

Some of these statements may or may not be true, depending on who wins.  But it is getting annoying how after ever game, season, etc. people get on tv, radio, twitter and analyze it like it is the most important, greatest game ever.  One way or the other, after the game tonight, and throughout the whole offseason, be prepared for some overreactions, and moronic statements made by NFL "experts."  And probably more talk about Tim Tebow.

Shocking

Well, my playoff predictions were horrible.  0-2 on championship weekend.  The difference was a dropped pass /missed FG and Kyle Williams not knowing how to return/field kicks.  I guess that's the NFL for you.

We'll probably work on a Super Bowl preview, which the way things are going, I would take to Vegas and bet the opposite.

Also, now that the NFL is about over, and I may have some free time on my hands, I should probably quit sucking at predictions and start doing actual writing/bitching/calling people out.

Yeah, that's right.  Everybody else sucks.

Championship Weekend

New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3)

This is the game everyone predicted, right?  Oh wait.  I guess that's the NFL for you.  Loads of storylines in this game.  It really is all about Jim Harbaugh though.  Alex Smith, the bust who was taken before Aaron Rodgers in the '05 draft, is all of the sudden in the NFC Championship game.  His performance vs. the Saints is one that 49ers fans won't soon forget.  Well, that and Vernon Davis.  He had a man's game.  But really, the Niners are all about defense.  Ask Pierre Thomas (ok, he probably doesn't remember).  Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are the best linebacking tandem this side of Brian Cushing/DeMeco Ryans or Ray Lewis/Terrell Suggs.  And the 49ers have 2 other "Smiths" that have made a huge impact.  Justin Smith is a stalwart on the D Line, and rookie Aldon Smith has burst on the scene as a sackmaster, although with less recognition than Von Miller.

I don't have much to say about the Giants, mostly because I am bitter.  But we all know what they do.  Should be a good game.  People keep making parallels to the '07 Giants, like they are a team of destiny, especially with the Patriots looming on the other side of the bracket.  But to me, this feels like the year for San Francisco.  They will jack Eli up in a way that the Packers were not capable of.  Hakeem Nicks will not be running around the secondary unguarded.  Brandon Jacobs is horrible, and will be exposed as such.  San Francisco 26-21


Baltimore (13-4) at New England ( 14-3)

This is a damn good game on paper.  I think we all knew these were to best two teams in the AFC all season.  Pittsburgh and Houston had their moments, but it's come down to the best.  This is difficult for me to call.  I have always gone with the Patriots.  Tom Brady is tremendous, and he has quite the rapport with his receivers/TEs/random white guys on his offense.  Baltimore is the exact opposite.  Playmaking defense, steady offense, led by Ray Rice.  He is one of the few legitimate backs out there these days who you can count on to carry a team.  Unfortunately, Jay Flacco is not the kind of QB you can count on.  He is one of those QBs who sucks 95 percent of the game, but makes a couple big throws when he has to.

My preseason prediction was the Packers & Patriots.  I could be half right.  But since October, I've had the feeling that Baltimore would rough New England up when it came down to it.  Nothing would surprise me here, and I feel like copping out and not even making a pick.  But, I'll put my neck on the line.  Baltimore 31-28

Patrick's Divisional Picks

This is what many consider the best weekend of NFL football, figured I should make some picks.

New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3)

I have a hard time with this one.  All season I have thought that the 49ers couldn't hold up to the Packers or Saints offenses.  I still think that, but I'm not as confident in it.  New Orleans is not the same team on the road.  They just aren't.  San Francisco actually averages as much points at home as New Orleans does at home.  I really want to pick the Niners, but when it comes down to it, I don't think they can score enough TDs.  They stall too much in the red zone, settling for Field Goals.  New Orleans 27-26

Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)

Tim Tebow is a joke.  The Patriots defense is a joke.  New England keeps getting down 16 to 21 points in the 1st quarter, which they obviously can't do in a playoff game.  The Broncos keep sucking for most of the game, then pulling something out at the end.  Neither styles are very successful for playoff football.  The Patriots have lost their last 2 home playoff games.  If that happens again Bill Belicheck should just retire.  The spread is a little high (13), and NE hasn't been very successful covering those high spreads this year.  New England 31-20

Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)

I like what Houston doing before all these QB injuries.  They still have some talented players, but going on the road to Baltimore to face that defense is going to be too much for them.  And they don't have Andy Dalton to fall apart for them.  Not that Joe Flacco is great, but he'll do what he needs to get the victory.  Baltimore 27-15

New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)

People seem to have forgotten how good the Packers are. Will Green Bay be able to score as well in the cold.  Here's a hint, yes.  In Dec/Jan they scored 46, 35, and 45 at Lambeau, the last time with their BACK UP QB.  The Packers, not the Saints, are the highest scoring team in the League (35 ppg) and have averaged 40 ppg at home. The Giants are the "hot" team.  Comparisons are being made to 2007 when the Giants beat the Packers in their last home game, and beat the undefeated Patriots.  The fact is, the past means nothing.  The Packers are the most well prepared team in the NFL, and they are healthy.  Yes, the Giants can pose problems with their pass rush.  Yes, the Packers defense is a liability at times.  But the fact is, Aaron Rodgers will not make the killer mistake.  Eli Manning will make a couple.  Green Bay 41-31

Why Ryan Braun's Guilt (or Innocence) Doesn't Matter

"Close pent-up guilts,

Rive your concealing continents, and cry

These dreadful summoners grace.  I am a man

More sinn'd against than sinning."

                                 --Shakespeare King Lear 

Ryan Braun is guilty.  Well, he’s certainly not innocent, so that makes him guilty.  I mean that’s how baseball works now, right?

The story of Braun’s impressively positive test, at least in Wisconsin and among Brewers fans, has sparked outrage, vehement defense, and some good puns.  There is a strong movement to have Braun declared “Braunicent”.  People want to refute the idea that he might have been “Jew-cing”.  But if Braun did use PEDs a friend put it best saying, “This sheds a whole new light on ‘beast mode’.”

The sad truth is that Braun’s innocence is of little consequence now.  Remember Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens?  Every person reading this “knows” that those two men are guilty of using PEDs; nevermind that neither man failed a test.  Peripheral truths like Bonds’s ever-expanding cranium or Clemens’s ability to outpitch the world in his 40s have been enough to convict. 

The case of Braun’s positive test isn’t going to be tried in any type of legal court in America, either.  Instead it will be tried in the court of public opinion, where guilt is assumed and innocence must be proved.

Braun has a better chance to have his positive test overturned than anyone before him.  If you believe the leaked sources, that is. 

If the test is confirmed, he’s a juicer and the 2011 MVP is tainted.  It would be hard to believe that he’s the only trophy-sporting PED user.

If the test is overturned, however, the precedent that would be set could have disastrous results.  The most immediate would be that Roger Clemens would be back in the news parading his innocence before you finished reading the alert on your cell phone.  I am was a Clemens fan and even I don’t want that.  The longer lasting result could be that players who need to use PEDs to maintain a major league caliber of play might become brave enough to chance it more openly should there exist a possibility of overturned tests for any reason.  Baseball is not in the business of setting those kind of precedents if they can help it. 

Baseball is traditionally an either/or sport.  After too many probable steroid users cried ignorance, MLB decided to implement these testing policies and the harsh punishments as a means of forcing players to understand what they were putting in their bodies.  The gray areas of supplement manufacturing and body biochemistry be damned, when MLB tests your pee you’re either juicing or you’re not.

Regardless, Braun remains in an unenviable position.  That the confidentiality of his test results, as well as that of countless others before him, was breached is disheartening.  What’s worse is that Braun’s most positive option is actually to admit that he’s guilty whether he is or not.  America will forgive your transgressions, just ask A-Rod.  Braun’s other choice is the specter of possible PED use hanging over his career forever.  Don’t believe that even if MLB reverses the decision Braun’s image will escape untarnished. 

Who’s to blame for this sad reality?  Everyone. 

The players, after all, were the ones who started using PEDs.

MLB seems to believe that, in its world at least, testing is always conclusive and infallible.  Tell that to an America where pharmaceuticals that cure one condition can cause twenty others (and death is somehow always among them).  It’s insane to expect every person’s body to react exactly the same to everything that is ingested, but that is exactly what is written between the lines of baseball’s drug testing policies.  That one of MLB’s tests can’t be botched is also an idea treated with the sanctity of scripture.  The test subject is fallible but the test is crystal clear in its findings.  That approach has worked real well for No Child Left Behind, hasn’t it?

The biggest problem with Braun’s case is the speed with which the baseball media turned on him.  Within minutes of the leak, Buster Olney had a voiceover segment on ESPN that basically condemned Braun.  He then spent time debating the possibility of revoking Braun’s MVP award.  Because that’s what baseball writers do.  They have the power to mold a player’s image into whatever they wish, they have the power to keep you from the hall of fame, and because that’s all they have they wield those powers dictatorially.  Not once did Olney question the system, not once did he attempt to explain the nuances of baseball’s alternate reality.  When an interpreter – and a knowledgeable one at that – could have put his skills to use he simply reported. 

I understand and so does Buster.  He knows who signs his checks.  That doesn’t do much to allay my disappointment.  And it sure as hell isn’t going to make things any easier for Braun.  Guilty or Braunicent. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you haven't yet, please also check out Jonah Keri's article on Grantland about Braun.