As I am writing this Wisconsin is losing 14-3 to Utah St, so maybe I should calm down on judging the whole Big 10 as a joke. But maybe I shouldn't.
This year's Cowboy Classic at Cowboys Stadium was billed as a top 10 matchup of BCS contenders. Alabama thoroughly embarrassed Michigan. Denard Robinson looked horrible. The 27 point beat down didn't even tell the whole story. Alabama was better than Michigan in every way, and it wasn't even close.
But the next few couple weeks might have even been worse for their reputation. Last week, two Big 10 teams (Wisconsin & Nebraska) went out West to take on the bottom feeders of the Pac 12. Both teams lost in embarrassing fashion. Nebraska gave up over 600 yards of offense to unranked UCLA. Oregon State held Montee Ball to 61 yards rushing and the Badgers couldn't score until garbage time.
This week wasn't a heck of a lot better for other "top" Big 10 teams. Michigan State is losing to Notre Dame at the half. Ohio State could barely beat Cal (who missed 3 FGs and lost by 7). Nebraska turned the ball over 4 times in the 2nd half vs. Arkansas State and didn't put them away until the 4th qtr. Oh, and Indiana is losing to Ball State.
(I did not mention Penn St's opening 2 weeks debacles on purpose)
So having said all of that, I think most of us upper Midwesterners realized in about 06 or 07 that the Big 10 just couldn't hang with the SEC. Florida and LSU made that pretty clear in a couple BCS Championship Games vs. Ohio State. The last 2 times the Big 10 had a National Champion were controversial. Ohio State in 2002 has been dubbed the "luckeyes" because of the phantom pass interference called on Miami in OT. Then of course there is Michigan in 1997 who split with Nebraska. That was the season that ushered in the BCS to match up #1 VS. #2 regardless of conference bowl affiliation. Before that Penn State won the National Championship in 1986 and 1982. So, in my lifetime, the Big 10 has won 4 National Champsionships, one of them split.
So why does the Big 10 have this reputation as a power conference? Well, just like everything else in college football, tradition and history matters more than reality. I honestly feel that the Big 10 has become a conference that has a lot of pageantry and passionate fan bases, but is just not relevant in the National Championship picture. What really makes me think here is that the playoff format is coming soon, with the top 4 getting to play in a mini-playoff. Will the Big 10 continue to get one of their average teams in that top 4 based on history? Probably. And that's a shame. We all know that the top 4 teams every year should basically be the top 3 SEC teams and either USC or Oklahoma. But somehow Michigan or Ohio State will manage to con the public into believing that they are top notch NCAA Football teams.
So I guess the question is, can the Big 10 win another 4 National Titles in the next 30 years of my life? I wouldn't bet on it.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Patrick's NFL Preview
Patrick's NFL Preview (This Year with Fantasy Advice!)
AFC
EAST
Buffalo Bills:
Two straight years I think the Bills made the right moves in the draft
and free agency, focusing on defense. they have locked up Ryan
Fitzpatrick, which seems about as brilliant as locking up Derek
Anderson, Jake Delhomme, or Kevin Kolb at this point. But can he be
an effective QB? I think he can. Unfortunately for Buffalo the
division is very competitive. The AFC East probably has the easiest
draw with the NFC West & AFC South, although I expect those divisions
to be much improved over last year. Long story short, another 3rd
place finish for the Bills.
EAST
Buffalo Bills:
Two straight years I think the Bills made the right moves in the draft
and free agency, focusing on defense. they have locked up Ryan
Fitzpatrick, which seems about as brilliant as locking up Derek
Anderson, Jake Delhomme, or Kevin Kolb at this point. But can he be
an effective QB? I think he can. Unfortunately for Buffalo the
division is very competitive. The AFC East probably has the easiest
draw with the NFC West & AFC South, although I expect those divisions
to be much improved over last year. Long story short, another 3rd
place finish for the Bills.
Fantasy Note: Fred Jackson was a stud last year until he got hurt.
This is not an uncommon theme with this year's RB crop. Might not be
a bad idea to grab him in the mid to late 3rd round. (Pete says: I got Fred
This is not an uncommon theme with this year's RB crop. Might not be
a bad idea to grab him in the mid to late 3rd round. (Pete says: I got Fred
in the 5th, started him in Week 1, and because of his injury lost by .14 points.
Thanks for nothing Fred.)
Miami Dolphins:
Ryan Tannehill? Please, if you are a Dolphins fan don't even worry
about him this year, because he will suck, if he plays at all. Not
that Matt Moore or David Garrard is much better. As usual they have a
young, talented defense. Seems to me to the untrained eye that they
have 2 main weaknesses. Making big plays in the passing game, and
their secondary. In a division with Tom Brady, that doesn't bode
well. Seems to me like another 7-9 type season and a coach with his
job on the line.
Fantasy Note: Miami might have been the worst fantasy football team of
the past 2-3 years. Highest ranked player according to ESPN is Reggie
Bush at 51. As usual stay away from any WR they have.
New York Jets:
Every year I bitch about how much Sanchez sucks, and how overrated the
Jets are. Everyone on this team has gotten worse the past 3 years,
except Revis I suppose. Since Rex Ryan took over, here is how I see
it: Sanchez: Worse. O-Line: Worse. D-Line: Worse. LB: Worse. WR:
Worse. RB: Worse. Special Teams: Worse. Add to that the Tebow/New
York/Rex Ryan's craziness factor and I do not see this season going
well at all. I want to predict a 4-12 disaster, but somehow I think
they'll pull 7-8 wins out to give delusional NY fans some dreams.
Fantasy Note: Speaking of bad FF teams. The highest ranked Jet is
Shonn Greene at 69. Do not be fooled into any of their WRs or QBs
higher than the 8th or 9th RD.
New England Patriots:
They are the anti-Jets. Year after year they get older, or lose some
familiar players, or make bizarre decisions that leave you scratching
your head. And year after year they go 12-4. And Tom Brady is
awesome. And white Tight Ends set record numbers. And white WRs play
defense. And they somehow make everyone else in the AFC look shitty
while doing this. And then they choke in the playoffs/Super Bowl
(post 2004). It will be tough to dethrone Belichick and company
coming of the Super Bowl loss, especially considering the overall
shittiness of the division.
Fantasy Note: We all know the numbers this passing game can put up.
Rookie RB Stevan Ridley is getting some early buzz. But just take
Gronk in the early 2nd and watch the TDs pile up.
WEST
Denver Broncos:
This is very simple. The have Peyton Manning, not Tim Tebow. They
win the AFC West.
Fantasy Note: Look for 1000 Yard seasons from both Eric Decker &
Demayrius Thomas. Wouldn't be a bad idea to grab Thomas in the 5th.
Peyton Manning will probably last til the 5th as well if you go heavy
RB/WR the 1st 4 rounds.
Kansas City Chiefs:
This is very simple. They have Matt Cassell. They don't win the AFC West.
Fantasy Note: Peyton Hillis & Jamaal Charles should make a nice RB
duo. Bet on Charles separating himself as the season wears on. If
you take Charles in the 2nd you can probably grab Hillis in the 7th if
you believe in the whole handcuff thing.
Oakland Raiders:
Interested to see how Reggie McKenzie reshapes the Oakland roster. He
has already made his mark. This will be a rebuilding year. They will
probably squeak 6 or 7 wins out, but Carson Palmer is not the QB of
the future, and the defense needs to be rebuilt to fit Dennis Allen's
style.
Fantasy Note: Bay Area insight alert. Rod Streater. He has been the
best WR for OAK this preseason. He's 6'3" 200, a little skinny, and
he went undrafted out of Temple. Reggie McKenzie picked him up and he
is threatening to take a starting job from Moore or Ford. And like in
real life, he will probably go undrafted. Take him in the 14th or
15th or make him your first wire transaction after seeing what he does
after the 1st week or 2.
San Diego Chargers:
Rumor has it that Antonio Gates is in shape, healthy, and tearing up
Training Camp so far. Philip Rivers and Ryan Matthews should have big
years. Yes, they lost Vincent Jackson. And they still have Norv
Turner. So I just can't pick them to win more than 9 games.
Fantasy Note: Vincent Jackson left, and he was basically replaced by
former Saints 3rd WR Robert Meachem. He has managed to land with
another proficient QB and offense, so might not be a bad grab in the
7th or 8th.
SOUTH
Houston Texans:
On paper they are the runaway favorite in this division. They have
made good personnel decisions recently, but it seems like losing
DeMeco Ryans & Mario Williams in one year will hurt. But then again
Mario Williams was hurt most of last year and Ryans was not their
prototypical 3-4 type LB. Can Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian
Foster stay healthy? If so, they win the division running away. If
not watch out for Tennessee. Yeah, I said it...
Fantasy Note: You know who I like? Owen Daniels. Mostly because he
went to Wisconsin, but also because he looks like he should be an
insurance salesman. Also is a nice grab at TE if you miss out on the
top tier guys that will go early.
Indianapolis Colts:
Obviously they have gutted their roster and gone into rebuilding mode
around Andrew Luck. Smart move. Maybe the struggle through a 5 win
season this year, but in 2013 they will be back.
Fantasy Note: Highest rated player on ESPN is RB Donald Brown. Maybe
he will be a nice safety net for Luck. Will Luck & Fleener's rapport
from college carry over to good stats in the NFL? Probably not, but
worth keeping an eye on.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
Their quarterback is Blaine Gabbert, their starting RB is holding out,
and their top pick and expected starting WR is already in trouble with
the law. Yeah... 5 wins here they come.
Fantasy Note: Justin Blackmon actually looked pretty good in his first
preseason game. Not sure which is a bigger question mark though: Can
he stay out of Jail? or can Blaine Gabbert actually be an NFL QB that
can get him the ball.
Tennessee Titans:
In the Jeff Fischer years I would always assume that he would pull
some garbage out of his butt and put together a competitive team,
maybe even a division contender with Kerry Collins and some other fat
white guys. Things have changed in Tennessee, but I feel like Jake
Locker will step into the starting role at some point, Chris Johnson
will be CJ2K, and Kenny Britt will stay out of jail. Are they going
to win the Super Bowl? No. Could they go 10-6 and spoil they Texans
march to a division title? Why not?
Fantasy Note: If Tennessee is wise they will feed Chris Johnson this
year to take the pressure off Jake Locker. If you own him you are
definitely hoping this is the case.
NORTH
Baltimore Ravens:
A lot of expectations on this team. Flacco has basically made it
clear that he is in the "elite" QB ranks. OK, time to prove it. Ray
Rice sure helps. And Ray Lewis & Ed Reed being 2 of the greatest ever
at their position does too. The Suggs injury sucks, and if they have
injury problems with Rice or Boldin they could be in trouble. But
overall, they will compete with Pittsburgh for the division.
Fantasy Note:
Ray Rice is probably the best back in Fantasy Land this year. Can
Torrey Smith continue to emerge as a number one type receiver? It
depends on Flacco, although I wouldn't recommend having him as
anything other than a back up.
Cincinnati Bengals:
I like what they are doing in the 'Nati. Making smart decisions up
and down their roster and building depth through the draft. But this
year seems like a sophomore slump for Andy Dalton to me. The running
game will be iffy, and Jerome Simpson and his flips are gone, so AJ
Green & Jermaine Gresham really have to step up. I like where the
defense is at, but in this division they need to be great. We'll see.
They'll compete.
Fantasy Note:
They didn't look too hot in the 3rd preseason game against the
Packers. hard to really pinpoint anyone on this team to get excited
about, as the running back position has become a weakness instead of a
strength. If you miss out on Gronk or Jimmy Graham you might want to
think of Gresham.
Cleveland Browns:
Yikes. Sure, Trent Richardson should be excellent. Weedon will suck.
The team is being sold. Holmgren has no clue what he's doing without
having Favre/White gifted to him or a balding Matt Hasselbeck leading
his team. And they are still Cleveland. Sorry...
Fantasy Note:
Irrelevant (Pete Says: Best. Analysis. Ever.)
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Ben Roethlisberger is good. I hate to admit it, but he is. So is
their receiving corps. If Mike Wallace would get his head out of his
ass and just sign his tender they would be a top 5 or 6 offense no
problem. Granted, when you put your body on the line every week for
those 60 Minutes pieces you have to get yours when you can. Oh
wait... Anyway, this is a 3 team race in the North, and someone will
probably be left out. Experience, coaching, and playmaking makes me
think the Steelers will survive, but if Andy Dalton progresses and the
Steelers have some internal strife with the receivers, etc. we could
be in for a surprise.
Fantasy Note:
In mocks I have been doing and by most rankings you can get Ben
Roethlisberger in the 8th or 9th. If you want to load up on other
skill positions early and wait for Big Ben to fall to you late you
might just surprise some people.
NFC
EAST
Dallas Cowboys:
I talk a lot of trash about the Cowboys, but they were one wide open
pass away from winning the East and keeping the Giants out of the
playoffs last year. Still, I think their talent is overrated by the
media, and Tony Romo is just not a Super Bowl caliber QB. The
secondary will probably improve as the season goes on, and they will
put up some decent numbers, but the typical Dallas distractions (and
Romo) will keep them from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Fantasy Note:
I like Miles Austin, but I would probably avoid him with his injury
history. Demarco Murray should be a beast.
New York Giants:
Can the Giants avoid repeating history? Last time they won the Super
Bowl they didn't make the playoffs the following year. In the NFC
East that's not that hard to imagine. Philly & Dallas will compete,
and Hell, the Giants lost to Rex Grossman twice last year. Still, I
think the defensive line is primed for another dominant season, and
Eli Manning has really come into his own. They have had some losses,
some significant (Jake Ballard/Mario Manningham) some not so much
(Brandon-1 yard and a cloud of fat dust-Jacobs). Still, if they stay
healthy there is no reason they shouldn't contend for the Title again.
Fantasy Note:
If you miss out on Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Stafford/
worry, stock up on RB/WR and grab Eli in the late 4th or 5th.
Philadelphia Eagles:
First and foremost I will never believe in Michael Vick. I think
their defense will be strong this year. Last year they added a lot of
splash players, but this year they beefed up with the draft. It
should come together for them. But can Vick stay healthy? And is he
really a threat anymore? Will DeSean Jackson quit being a douche?
Still, if LeSean McCoy is healthy and Vick can play 13-14 solid games,
with an improved defense they will challenge the Giants for the East.
Fantasy Note:
DO NOT DRAFT MICHAEL VICK. He is a fantasy owner Killer just as much
as a coach killer.
Washington Redskins:
RGIII. That's pretty much all you'll hear about them this year. He
will have his struggles. The Redskins still don't have the talent.
Fantasy Note:
This might be remotely interesting if Mike Shanahan wasn't hiding who
he would play at RB. So just avoid them all.
WEST
Arizona Cardinals:
The QB battle is the big story here. Skelton or Kolb? Kolb was the
big splash last year, but Skelton rallied the team and almost took
them to a .500 record after a dismal start. Defensively they can
compete, but getting the ball to Larry Fitzgerald & rookie Michael
Floyd will be the key here. Wisenhunt's job might be on the line if
they can't make a playoff push here.
Fantasy Note:
Larry Fitzgerald is rated as a late 1st round pick, and Skelton and
him seemed to have chemistry last year. Seems a little high to me
though.
Saint Louis Rams:
Well, I like what they did in the draft. They are hoping Jackson and
Bradford come back at full strength, and if every one of their WRs
does not blow out their knees this year, they might have a team.
Still not quite sure they can challenge for the division title quite
yet, but I do believe Jeff Fischer will have them in contention by
2013.
Fantasy Note:
The only thing I can say here is that at some point Steven Jackson is
going to wear down. Is there anyone on this roster than can be a
"sleeper?"
San Francisco 49ers:
Miami Dolphins:
Ryan Tannehill? Please, if you are a Dolphins fan don't even worry
about him this year, because he will suck, if he plays at all. Not
that Matt Moore or David Garrard is much better. As usual they have a
young, talented defense. Seems to me to the untrained eye that they
have 2 main weaknesses. Making big plays in the passing game, and
their secondary. In a division with Tom Brady, that doesn't bode
well. Seems to me like another 7-9 type season and a coach with his
job on the line.
Fantasy Note: Miami might have been the worst fantasy football team of
the past 2-3 years. Highest ranked player according to ESPN is Reggie
Bush at 51. As usual stay away from any WR they have.
New York Jets:
Every year I bitch about how much Sanchez sucks, and how overrated the
Jets are. Everyone on this team has gotten worse the past 3 years,
except Revis I suppose. Since Rex Ryan took over, here is how I see
it: Sanchez: Worse. O-Line: Worse. D-Line: Worse. LB: Worse. WR:
Worse. RB: Worse. Special Teams: Worse. Add to that the Tebow/New
York/Rex Ryan's craziness factor and I do not see this season going
well at all. I want to predict a 4-12 disaster, but somehow I think
they'll pull 7-8 wins out to give delusional NY fans some dreams.
Fantasy Note: Speaking of bad FF teams. The highest ranked Jet is
Shonn Greene at 69. Do not be fooled into any of their WRs or QBs
higher than the 8th or 9th RD.
New England Patriots:
They are the anti-Jets. Year after year they get older, or lose some
familiar players, or make bizarre decisions that leave you scratching
your head. And year after year they go 12-4. And Tom Brady is
awesome. And white Tight Ends set record numbers. And white WRs play
defense. And they somehow make everyone else in the AFC look shitty
while doing this. And then they choke in the playoffs/Super Bowl
(post 2004). It will be tough to dethrone Belichick and company
coming of the Super Bowl loss, especially considering the overall
shittiness of the division.
Fantasy Note: We all know the numbers this passing game can put up.
Rookie RB Stevan Ridley is getting some early buzz. But just take
Gronk in the early 2nd and watch the TDs pile up.
WEST
Denver Broncos:
This is very simple. The have Peyton Manning, not Tim Tebow. They
win the AFC West.
Fantasy Note: Look for 1000 Yard seasons from both Eric Decker &
Demayrius Thomas. Wouldn't be a bad idea to grab Thomas in the 5th.
Peyton Manning will probably last til the 5th as well if you go heavy
RB/WR the 1st 4 rounds.
Kansas City Chiefs:
This is very simple. They have Matt Cassell. They don't win the AFC West.
Fantasy Note: Peyton Hillis & Jamaal Charles should make a nice RB
duo. Bet on Charles separating himself as the season wears on. If
you take Charles in the 2nd you can probably grab Hillis in the 7th if
you believe in the whole handcuff thing.
Oakland Raiders:
Interested to see how Reggie McKenzie reshapes the Oakland roster. He
has already made his mark. This will be a rebuilding year. They will
probably squeak 6 or 7 wins out, but Carson Palmer is not the QB of
the future, and the defense needs to be rebuilt to fit Dennis Allen's
style.
Fantasy Note: Bay Area insight alert. Rod Streater. He has been the
best WR for OAK this preseason. He's 6'3" 200, a little skinny, and
he went undrafted out of Temple. Reggie McKenzie picked him up and he
is threatening to take a starting job from Moore or Ford. And like in
real life, he will probably go undrafted. Take him in the 14th or
15th or make him your first wire transaction after seeing what he does
after the 1st week or 2.
San Diego Chargers:
Rumor has it that Antonio Gates is in shape, healthy, and tearing up
Training Camp so far. Philip Rivers and Ryan Matthews should have big
years. Yes, they lost Vincent Jackson. And they still have Norv
Turner. So I just can't pick them to win more than 9 games.
Fantasy Note: Vincent Jackson left, and he was basically replaced by
former Saints 3rd WR Robert Meachem. He has managed to land with
another proficient QB and offense, so might not be a bad grab in the
7th or 8th.
SOUTH
Houston Texans:
On paper they are the runaway favorite in this division. They have
made good personnel decisions recently, but it seems like losing
DeMeco Ryans & Mario Williams in one year will hurt. But then again
Mario Williams was hurt most of last year and Ryans was not their
prototypical 3-4 type LB. Can Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian
Foster stay healthy? If so, they win the division running away. If
not watch out for Tennessee. Yeah, I said it...
Fantasy Note: You know who I like? Owen Daniels. Mostly because he
went to Wisconsin, but also because he looks like he should be an
insurance salesman. Also is a nice grab at TE if you miss out on the
top tier guys that will go early.
Indianapolis Colts:
Obviously they have gutted their roster and gone into rebuilding mode
around Andrew Luck. Smart move. Maybe the struggle through a 5 win
season this year, but in 2013 they will be back.
Fantasy Note: Highest rated player on ESPN is RB Donald Brown. Maybe
he will be a nice safety net for Luck. Will Luck & Fleener's rapport
from college carry over to good stats in the NFL? Probably not, but
worth keeping an eye on.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
Their quarterback is Blaine Gabbert, their starting RB is holding out,
and their top pick and expected starting WR is already in trouble with
the law. Yeah... 5 wins here they come.
Fantasy Note: Justin Blackmon actually looked pretty good in his first
preseason game. Not sure which is a bigger question mark though: Can
he stay out of Jail? or can Blaine Gabbert actually be an NFL QB that
can get him the ball.
Tennessee Titans:
In the Jeff Fischer years I would always assume that he would pull
some garbage out of his butt and put together a competitive team,
maybe even a division contender with Kerry Collins and some other fat
white guys. Things have changed in Tennessee, but I feel like Jake
Locker will step into the starting role at some point, Chris Johnson
will be CJ2K, and Kenny Britt will stay out of jail. Are they going
to win the Super Bowl? No. Could they go 10-6 and spoil they Texans
march to a division title? Why not?
Fantasy Note: If Tennessee is wise they will feed Chris Johnson this
year to take the pressure off Jake Locker. If you own him you are
definitely hoping this is the case.
NORTH
Baltimore Ravens:
A lot of expectations on this team. Flacco has basically made it
clear that he is in the "elite" QB ranks. OK, time to prove it. Ray
Rice sure helps. And Ray Lewis & Ed Reed being 2 of the greatest ever
at their position does too. The Suggs injury sucks, and if they have
injury problems with Rice or Boldin they could be in trouble. But
overall, they will compete with Pittsburgh for the division.
Fantasy Note:
Ray Rice is probably the best back in Fantasy Land this year. Can
Torrey Smith continue to emerge as a number one type receiver? It
depends on Flacco, although I wouldn't recommend having him as
anything other than a back up.
Cincinnati Bengals:
I like what they are doing in the 'Nati. Making smart decisions up
and down their roster and building depth through the draft. But this
year seems like a sophomore slump for Andy Dalton to me. The running
game will be iffy, and Jerome Simpson and his flips are gone, so AJ
Green & Jermaine Gresham really have to step up. I like where the
defense is at, but in this division they need to be great. We'll see.
They'll compete.
Fantasy Note:
They didn't look too hot in the 3rd preseason game against the
Packers. hard to really pinpoint anyone on this team to get excited
about, as the running back position has become a weakness instead of a
strength. If you miss out on Gronk or Jimmy Graham you might want to
think of Gresham.
Cleveland Browns:
Yikes. Sure, Trent Richardson should be excellent. Weedon will suck.
The team is being sold. Holmgren has no clue what he's doing without
having Favre/White gifted to him or a balding Matt Hasselbeck leading
his team. And they are still Cleveland. Sorry...
Fantasy Note:
Irrelevant (Pete Says: Best. Analysis. Ever.)
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Ben Roethlisberger is good. I hate to admit it, but he is. So is
their receiving corps. If Mike Wallace would get his head out of his
ass and just sign his tender they would be a top 5 or 6 offense no
problem. Granted, when you put your body on the line every week for
those 60 Minutes pieces you have to get yours when you can. Oh
wait... Anyway, this is a 3 team race in the North, and someone will
probably be left out. Experience, coaching, and playmaking makes me
think the Steelers will survive, but if Andy Dalton progresses and the
Steelers have some internal strife with the receivers, etc. we could
be in for a surprise.
Fantasy Note:
In mocks I have been doing and by most rankings you can get Ben
Roethlisberger in the 8th or 9th. If you want to load up on other
skill positions early and wait for Big Ben to fall to you late you
might just surprise some people.
NFC
EAST
Dallas Cowboys:
I talk a lot of trash about the Cowboys, but they were one wide open
pass away from winning the East and keeping the Giants out of the
playoffs last year. Still, I think their talent is overrated by the
media, and Tony Romo is just not a Super Bowl caliber QB. The
secondary will probably improve as the season goes on, and they will
put up some decent numbers, but the typical Dallas distractions (and
Romo) will keep them from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Fantasy Note:
I like Miles Austin, but I would probably avoid him with his injury
history. Demarco Murray should be a beast.
New York Giants:
Can the Giants avoid repeating history? Last time they won the Super
Bowl they didn't make the playoffs the following year. In the NFC
East that's not that hard to imagine. Philly & Dallas will compete,
and Hell, the Giants lost to Rex Grossman twice last year. Still, I
think the defensive line is primed for another dominant season, and
Eli Manning has really come into his own. They have had some losses,
some significant (Jake Ballard/Mario Manningham) some not so much
(Brandon-1 yard and a cloud of fat dust-Jacobs). Still, if they stay
healthy there is no reason they shouldn't contend for the Title again.
Fantasy Note:
If you miss out on Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Stafford/
worry, stock up on RB/WR and grab Eli in the late 4th or 5th.
Philadelphia Eagles:
First and foremost I will never believe in Michael Vick. I think
their defense will be strong this year. Last year they added a lot of
splash players, but this year they beefed up with the draft. It
should come together for them. But can Vick stay healthy? And is he
really a threat anymore? Will DeSean Jackson quit being a douche?
Still, if LeSean McCoy is healthy and Vick can play 13-14 solid games,
with an improved defense they will challenge the Giants for the East.
Fantasy Note:
DO NOT DRAFT MICHAEL VICK. He is a fantasy owner Killer just as much
as a coach killer.
Washington Redskins:
RGIII. That's pretty much all you'll hear about them this year. He
will have his struggles. The Redskins still don't have the talent.
Fantasy Note:
This might be remotely interesting if Mike Shanahan wasn't hiding who
he would play at RB. So just avoid them all.
WEST
Arizona Cardinals:
The QB battle is the big story here. Skelton or Kolb? Kolb was the
big splash last year, but Skelton rallied the team and almost took
them to a .500 record after a dismal start. Defensively they can
compete, but getting the ball to Larry Fitzgerald & rookie Michael
Floyd will be the key here. Wisenhunt's job might be on the line if
they can't make a playoff push here.
Fantasy Note:
Larry Fitzgerald is rated as a late 1st round pick, and Skelton and
him seemed to have chemistry last year. Seems a little high to me
though.
Saint Louis Rams:
Well, I like what they did in the draft. They are hoping Jackson and
Bradford come back at full strength, and if every one of their WRs
does not blow out their knees this year, they might have a team.
Still not quite sure they can challenge for the division title quite
yet, but I do believe Jeff Fischer will have them in contention by
2013.
Fantasy Note:
The only thing I can say here is that at some point Steven Jackson is
going to wear down. Is there anyone on this roster than can be a
"sleeper?"
San Francisco 49ers:
They were in the NFC Title game last year. Jim Harbaugh worked some
magic with Alex Smith and the defense did what they do and a 13-3
record and NFC Championship game at home was the result. Can they do
it again, with everyone expecting it now? Will Randy Moss, Mario
Manningham, rookies AJ Jenkins & LaMichael James actually make this an
explosive offense? I am still not quite sure, because Alex Smith is
still the QB. But hey, Jim Harbaugh might be some sort of "QB
whisperer" and turn Alex Smith into Aaron Rodgers. OK, probably not,
but if he progresses again they should be in the hunt. Or they'll go
8-8. Who knows.
Fantasy Note:
Just stay away from their WRs. And Frank Gore. And Alex Smith.
Vernon Davis is your guy, and maybe get Kendall Hunter late.
Seattle Seahawks:
They should be improved over last year, with another semi-interesting
QB battle going on. Matt Flynn was signed from Green Bay to be their
starter (a la Matt Hasselbeck a decade ago). Tarvaris Jackson won't
go away quietly, and Russell Wilson (3rd round pick from Wisconsin,
and a future starter in this league in his own right) will compete,
but expect Flynn to get the job. Can Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin,
Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice and Ben Obamanu become a solid NFL
receiving corps? Will Marshawn Lynch learn how to call a cab? Expect
Seattle to hover around .500 again.
Fantasy Note:
Marshawn was a beast last year. If he is their horse again he should
be a top 15 pick. But you have to worry that he'll do something
stupid and Goodell will lay the hammer.
SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons:
I get the feeling this Matt Ryan honeymoon is ending. He is a solid
QB, but doesn't make big time plays. Julio Jones & Roddy White are a
nice WR tandem, so there will be no excuses if the Falcons stumble
down the stretch or in the 1st round of the playoffs again. Michael
Turner isn't getting any younger, and the defense has trouble rushing
the passer, and defending the pass in general. I wonder if they might
drop below .500 for the first time in Matt Ryan's tenure.
Fantasy Note:
Some rankings have Julio Jones as a top 20 pick. Seems a little high
to me. But Roddy White and Jones both are going to be solid WRs to
line up week after week.
Carolina Panthers:
Improvement is definitely expected in Carolina this year. Cam Newton
broke record after record last year as the rookie #1 pick exceeded all
expectations. This year he will not sneak up on anyone, but that
might not matter. He is one of the most purely talented players to
come into the NFL in a long time. If he continues to improve, and the
management can make competent personnel decision around him I expect
them to contend sooner rather than later. This year might be a little
early, but they will definitely compete for the division.
Fantasy Note:
This RB situation is ridiculous. Who are they, the 2003 Denver
Broncos? Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert. Who
to pick? Probably stay away from all of them, unless one drops to you
and you need depth.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have had one of the worst offseasons I have ever seen in
professional sports. Suspensions, scandal, a Drew Brees Holdout
(since resolved) and a bad draft to top it off, I don't have a heck of
a lot of confidence that this franchise can stay together going
forward. However, there is enough talent on this team (AKA Drew
Brees) to contend for the South, and maybe NFC. This will be even
more on Brees shoulders than usual. He must hold it together, not
force it, and be the leader this team needs. If he does, they should
win the NFC South, otherwise they could flop.
Fantasy Note:
I have seen rankings that have Darren Sproles rated as the 14th
highest player in PPR leagues. Keep that in mind if you give points
for recepts, otherwise stay away until the 4th or 5th RD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
I want to think Tampa is back on track. Raheem Morris flamed out last
year. But so did Josh Freeman. And the QB makes the team. So was
last year an anomaly? Is Josh Freeman the real deal? Most people
like what they did in the draft, as do I. I think I need to see
improvement across the board to really believe that Greg Schiano,
former Rutgers coach, can lead a team at the next level. If he can,
the Bucs can make the NFC South the NFL's most competitive division.
Fantasy Note:
Doug Martin is rising on Mock Draft boards. Looks like he is taking
the starting role from LeGarrette Blount. Let's hope LeGarrette
doesn't punch him over it.
CENTRAL NORTH
Chicago Bears:
The Bears always scare me. Defense always competes, and Special teams
is always near the top of the league. Jay Cutler had this team
rolling last year until he spaztically broke his finger attempting to
tackle a defender after an interception last year. Matt Forte got the
new contract, so everyone expects another 1400 yd rushing, 600 yd
receiving season. Cutler has Brandon Marshal & Alshon Jeffrey now.
Like Matt Ryan, there is no longer any excuse in Chicago for failing
to make plays. They will compete in the NFC North.
Fantasy Note:
I have been seeing Alshon Jeffrey available in the last round of most
mocks. Not a bad stab if the rest of your roster is filled and you
can wait a few weeks for a potential breakout WR.
Detroit Lions:
This team has some talent. Unfortunately, it is tied up in 2 players.
Calvin Johnson is out of this world, and Matt Stafford is the perfect
QB for this team. They can light it up any day. But if everyone can
stop getting arrested all the time, the defense can come together, and
Ndamakong Suh can stop stomping on people, they will definitely give
the Packers & Bears a run for their money in the division.
Fantasy Note:
I am not joking about this: I will not draft Calvin Johnson. Madden
Curse. Matt Stafford is money though.
Green Bay Packers:
You won't hear a lot of gloating and grandstanding here. The Packers
are one of the best teams in the NFL. But they have a lot of
challenges to overcome. A weakened secondary, poor pass rush,
injuries and inexperience at LB are keeping Packers fans worried. But
hey, they have the best player in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is superb.
He and his deep receiving corps headed by Jordy Nelson (yeah that's
right, I said it) will cause nightmares for NFL defenses. They should
win the NFC North, but they won't be 15-1 again.
Fantasy Note:
I think most people have realized this by now, but take Jordy Nelson
before Greg Jennings this year if you have a choice of the two. And
take Cedric Benson in the 10th or 11th if he's still around. Should
be good for 6-7 TDs.
Minnesota Vikings:
Remember when they were relevant? Besides having a mulleted defensive
star with the number 69 and a stud RB coming back from major surgery?
The defense is bad, Christian Ponder is bad, and Percy Harvin has
headaches. Get ready for another top 5 pick Minnesota.
Fantasy Note:
Sucks that Adrian Peterson is hurt. I hate Minnesota but as a
football fan I hope he comes back strong. Some people are saying grab
Toby Gerhart as insurance, but he is just not that good. Just stay
away from the Vikings if you can.
magic with Alex Smith and the defense did what they do and a 13-3
record and NFC Championship game at home was the result. Can they do
it again, with everyone expecting it now? Will Randy Moss, Mario
Manningham, rookies AJ Jenkins & LaMichael James actually make this an
explosive offense? I am still not quite sure, because Alex Smith is
still the QB. But hey, Jim Harbaugh might be some sort of "QB
whisperer" and turn Alex Smith into Aaron Rodgers. OK, probably not,
but if he progresses again they should be in the hunt. Or they'll go
8-8. Who knows.
Fantasy Note:
Just stay away from their WRs. And Frank Gore. And Alex Smith.
Vernon Davis is your guy, and maybe get Kendall Hunter late.
Seattle Seahawks:
They should be improved over last year, with another semi-interesting
QB battle going on. Matt Flynn was signed from Green Bay to be their
starter (a la Matt Hasselbeck a decade ago). Tarvaris Jackson won't
go away quietly, and Russell Wilson (3rd round pick from Wisconsin,
and a future starter in this league in his own right) will compete,
but expect Flynn to get the job. Can Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin,
Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice and Ben Obamanu become a solid NFL
receiving corps? Will Marshawn Lynch learn how to call a cab? Expect
Seattle to hover around .500 again.
Fantasy Note:
Marshawn was a beast last year. If he is their horse again he should
be a top 15 pick. But you have to worry that he'll do something
stupid and Goodell will lay the hammer.
SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons:
I get the feeling this Matt Ryan honeymoon is ending. He is a solid
QB, but doesn't make big time plays. Julio Jones & Roddy White are a
nice WR tandem, so there will be no excuses if the Falcons stumble
down the stretch or in the 1st round of the playoffs again. Michael
Turner isn't getting any younger, and the defense has trouble rushing
the passer, and defending the pass in general. I wonder if they might
drop below .500 for the first time in Matt Ryan's tenure.
Fantasy Note:
Some rankings have Julio Jones as a top 20 pick. Seems a little high
to me. But Roddy White and Jones both are going to be solid WRs to
line up week after week.
Carolina Panthers:
Improvement is definitely expected in Carolina this year. Cam Newton
broke record after record last year as the rookie #1 pick exceeded all
expectations. This year he will not sneak up on anyone, but that
might not matter. He is one of the most purely talented players to
come into the NFL in a long time. If he continues to improve, and the
management can make competent personnel decision around him I expect
them to contend sooner rather than later. This year might be a little
early, but they will definitely compete for the division.
Fantasy Note:
This RB situation is ridiculous. Who are they, the 2003 Denver
Broncos? Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert. Who
to pick? Probably stay away from all of them, unless one drops to you
and you need depth.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have had one of the worst offseasons I have ever seen in
professional sports. Suspensions, scandal, a Drew Brees Holdout
(since resolved) and a bad draft to top it off, I don't have a heck of
a lot of confidence that this franchise can stay together going
forward. However, there is enough talent on this team (AKA Drew
Brees) to contend for the South, and maybe NFC. This will be even
more on Brees shoulders than usual. He must hold it together, not
force it, and be the leader this team needs. If he does, they should
win the NFC South, otherwise they could flop.
Fantasy Note:
I have seen rankings that have Darren Sproles rated as the 14th
highest player in PPR leagues. Keep that in mind if you give points
for recepts, otherwise stay away until the 4th or 5th RD.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
I want to think Tampa is back on track. Raheem Morris flamed out last
year. But so did Josh Freeman. And the QB makes the team. So was
last year an anomaly? Is Josh Freeman the real deal? Most people
like what they did in the draft, as do I. I think I need to see
improvement across the board to really believe that Greg Schiano,
former Rutgers coach, can lead a team at the next level. If he can,
the Bucs can make the NFC South the NFL's most competitive division.
Fantasy Note:
Doug Martin is rising on Mock Draft boards. Looks like he is taking
the starting role from LeGarrette Blount. Let's hope LeGarrette
doesn't punch him over it.
Chicago Bears:
The Bears always scare me. Defense always competes, and Special teams
is always near the top of the league. Jay Cutler had this team
rolling last year until he spaztically broke his finger attempting to
tackle a defender after an interception last year. Matt Forte got the
new contract, so everyone expects another 1400 yd rushing, 600 yd
receiving season. Cutler has Brandon Marshal & Alshon Jeffrey now.
Like Matt Ryan, there is no longer any excuse in Chicago for failing
to make plays. They will compete in the NFC North.
Fantasy Note:
I have been seeing Alshon Jeffrey available in the last round of most
mocks. Not a bad stab if the rest of your roster is filled and you
can wait a few weeks for a potential breakout WR.
Detroit Lions:
This team has some talent. Unfortunately, it is tied up in 2 players.
Calvin Johnson is out of this world, and Matt Stafford is the perfect
QB for this team. They can light it up any day. But if everyone can
stop getting arrested all the time, the defense can come together, and
Ndamakong Suh can stop stomping on people, they will definitely give
the Packers & Bears a run for their money in the division.
Fantasy Note:
I am not joking about this: I will not draft Calvin Johnson. Madden
Curse. Matt Stafford is money though.
Green Bay Packers:
You won't hear a lot of gloating and grandstanding here. The Packers
are one of the best teams in the NFL. But they have a lot of
challenges to overcome. A weakened secondary, poor pass rush,
injuries and inexperience at LB are keeping Packers fans worried. But
hey, they have the best player in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is superb.
He and his deep receiving corps headed by Jordy Nelson (yeah that's
right, I said it) will cause nightmares for NFL defenses. They should
win the NFC North, but they won't be 15-1 again.
Fantasy Note:
I think most people have realized this by now, but take Jordy Nelson
before Greg Jennings this year if you have a choice of the two. And
take Cedric Benson in the 10th or 11th if he's still around. Should
be good for 6-7 TDs.
Minnesota Vikings:
Remember when they were relevant? Besides having a mulleted defensive
star with the number 69 and a stud RB coming back from major surgery?
The defense is bad, Christian Ponder is bad, and Percy Harvin has
headaches. Get ready for another top 5 pick Minnesota.
Fantasy Note:
Sucks that Adrian Peterson is hurt. I hate Minnesota but as a
football fan I hope he comes back strong. Some people are saying grab
Toby Gerhart as insurance, but he is just not that good. Just stay
away from the Vikings if you can.
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