NFL Playoff Predictions

(Also posted late.  So sue me.)

by Patrick and Pete

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Patrick: 

Green Bay (1) vs. New Orleans (3)

The NFL would love this.  September 8th opener comes down to a rematch in January for the right to go to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.  It is SO difficult to get back to the Super Bowl after winning it the year before.  This game would pit the last 2 Champs against each other on the most hallowed grounds in the NFL.  Dom Capers will outscheme Gregg Williams, and Mike McCarthy will let A-Rodg do his thing.  Charles Woodson and/or Nick Collings will make a couple huge picks, and BJ Raji and the defense will dirsupt the Saints game plan... nothing against Sean Payton and Drew Brees, but they are going to come up short vs. the class of the NFC.

New England Patriots (3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4)

The great rivalry of the 00s will come to a head in 2012 as Tom Brady & Bill Belicheck will host Peyton Manning and the Colts for the right to play in INDY for the NFL Championship.  Peyton Manning will have struggled though a difficult season marred by personal injury and the usual adversity that goes along with an NFL team.  Tom Brady and his offense will be clicking on all cylinders, and this January the defense will be another year more experienced and will make enough plays to give the Pats a victory and on to the Super Bowl.

Pete: 

Tampa Bay (6) @ Green Bay (1)

I am all in on the Buccaneers hype.  I know the world is expecting them to regress, but they haven’t changed much in the way of their roster.  Josh Freeman might be the ‘mobile’ quarterback that everyone had hoped Vince Young to be, and if Tampa can manage to figure out how to run outside the tackles they will test a Green Bay defense that has more holes than they’re willing to admit (and that can’t be covered by Clay Matthews’s hair).  Tampa shocks the world and wins in Lambeau 38-35.

Tennessee Titans (5) @ New York Jets (1)

I know it seems sacrilege to have two Wild Card teams rolling into championship weekend but I’m all in on the Titans.  The effects of the Chris Johnson holdout will only show for the first two or three games as he gets back into game shape and the Titans take advantage of a late season schedule filled with teams whose fates are already determined to clinch the first wildcard spot.

On the other hand, the Jets roll.  After throttling New England and the eminently handsome and awesome Tom Brady and his great hair twice the Jets stumble only once (Week 15 @ Philadelphia) on their way to a remarkable 15-1 season.  Despite the Titans’ remarkable run, the defense of the Jets, girth of Rex Ryan, newfound dedication of Plaxico Burress, and Mark Sanchez’s ability to not lose the game for his team[1] are too much for the young Titans who are forced to go to Jake Locker late in the game when Matt Hasselbeck’s back gives out one final time.  Jets hold on 22-17.

Super Bowl

Pete: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) @ New York Jets (AFC)

Line NYJ -10   O/U 41

The Jets go into Indianapolis as 10-point favorites, a line that polarizes the nation moreso than Team Edward/Team Jacob.  (Edward, duh.)  The last three teams to be favored in a Super Bowl by 10 points or more (’98 Packers -11, ’02 Rams -14, ’08 Patriots -12) have not only failed to cover but also lost the game outright.  Not this time.  The Jets defense scores once, gives Mark Sanchez and Super Bowl MVP Plaxico Burress (7 rec, 198 yds) phenomenal field position all game, and the Jets win.  However, thanks to a last second bomb by Josh Freeman the Buccaneers score a touchdown that results in a push(!!)[2] and Vegas promptly melts into oblivion.  Even in his moment of triumph Rex Ryan manages to ruin somebody’s party.  New York Jets 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.

Patrick:

Green Bay (NFC) vs. New England (AFC)

This would be a historic, epic Super Bowl.  A rematch of the 1996 game featuring star QBs Favre & Bledsoe and coaches Holmgren & Parcells.  All four men have had outstanding careers, but times have changed.  Mike McCarthy will have an opportunity to put himself in legendary status along with QB Aaron Rodges.  Bill Belichick is a man on a mission, along with Tom Brady as the core of this team.  The Packers want to be the team of the ‘10s.  New England was team of the ‘00s.  Who will be the future of the NFL?  I guess we’ll find out Feb. 5th.

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[1] I’m looking at you Alex Smith.  And Brett Favre.

[2] What?  The world’s ending next December anyway.  Might as well have some crazy shit happen wherever I can, right?  You should be more startled by the fact that I will end up on the Jumbotron of the Super Bowl when then-girlfriend Emma Watson is caught feeding me popcorn.

NFC East and West previews

(Yes, we're two weeks into the season.  Late posting is entirely Pete's fault and Patrick manned up and left his picks as-is instead of altering them to make himself look smarter.  Kudos to him.)

by Patrick

NFC West

St. Louis Rams

I refuse to believe that the NFC West will be won by another sub .500 team, although the bookmakers, and if you look at the schedule, kind of make it look like a 7-9 or 8-8 team will do it again this year.  This is Steve Spagnuolo’s 3rd year and it seems he is making strides with the defense.  St Louis has made a big effort to give more weapons and depth to Sam Bradford and the offense. They brought in Josh McDaniels, who despite being a horrible head coach, is a good coordinator and should work well with Bradford.  Jerrious Norwood and Cadillac Williams are expected to relieve Steven Jackson of some of carries.  If the receiving corps and offensive line can stay healthy I can seen them winning some games.  

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona struggled through last season after Kurt Warner’s retirement and did not want to go through another season with the revolving door at the QB position.  Max Hall & John Skelton are still on the roster fighting for the backup spot, but the bold move was made after the lockout to trade a 2nd round pick and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for Kevin Kolb.  I expect a few bumps in the road this season for Kolb, but he should be at least able to get the ball to the playmakers.  Also, Larry Fitzgerald just signed a huge extension which eliminates the doubt that he might be gone after this season so the Cardinals should at least be able to build around that.  Defensively, I like their line.  Darnell Dockett is a beast.  Their linebacking core has a lot of retreads, but they have some youth coming up in O’Brien Schofield and Sam Acho.  If I were a Cardinals fan I would be concerned about the defensive backfield, especially with the loss of Cromartie, however they did draft Patrick Peterson.  

San Francisco 49ers

They’ve made some changes in San Francisco too, bringing in Jim Harbaugh and drafting Colin Kaepernick.  They’ve brought in Braylon Edwards and Ted Ginn at WR and signed Madieu Williams and Carlos Rodgers in the defensive backfield.  But the one thing that has stayed the same, which has most Niner fans expecting another sub-par season, is that Alex Smith is still expected to be the starting QB.  Most observers believe that in 6 seasons he has done nothing to show that he has what it takes to be a starter in the NFL.  He is inaccurate, doesn’t make quick decisions, and always seems to make one or two terrible plays that kill drives.  The organizational line is that he has been working with Harbaugh (who, because he had Andrew Luck last year at Stanford is all of the sudden a QB genius[1]) and will be in a system that suits him.  49er fans have heard that before.  Unless Kaepernick turns out to be the next Josh Freeman, the Niners will struggle this season, and until they figure out the QB position.

Seattle Seahawks

As predicted, Matt Hasselbeck is gone, off to Tennessee to try to continue his career as a starter.  Charlie Whitehurst[2] and former Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson are fighting for the starting job.  They also signed Sidney Rice to bolster the receiving corps.  On paper Rice, Mike Williams, Obomanu, and Golden Tate look like a decent group, with John Carlson at TE and Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett at RB rounding out the skill positions.  They need Russell Okung to stay healthy on the O line, and they signed Robert Gallery from Oakland to shore up the guard position.  Brandon Mebane is a beast on defense, but besides him I don’t see a lot of difference makers on the depth chart.  This is another team where quarterback uncertainty and poor play will keep them from being a legitimate winner in the NFL.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

I don’t know what to think about this team.  I have never been completely sold on Vick, but he definitely stepped up last year.  He is a weapon.  DeSean Jackson is probably the most explosive playmaker in the league.  But the big story was all the acquisitions they made in the condensed FA signing period.  Asomugha was the shocker, and they grabbed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb trade.  Heck, even their backup QB signing of Vince Young was of interest.  They should be able to get a couple good years out of Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins on the defensive line to along with an already solid bunch.  There are a lot of comparisons to the Miami Heat and throwing around the term “dream team.”  I wonder if they might have a similar fate in the end though.  There has never been a team in the NFL that threw so many players together and was really successful.  Maybe a piece here, a piece there, but this seems like a lot of change for a sport in which cohesion and camaraderie mean so much.  Still, they are the best team in the division, and probably will end up with a top 2 seed and a first round bye.  And the nation will be captivated no matter what.

New York Giants[3]

Eli Manning has declared himself an elite quarterback.  I don’t know that I put him up there with Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Rivers, but he is probably top 10.  He throws more interceptions than I’d like, but he is in command of his offense, and has playmakers at his disposal in the passing game.  Hakeem Nicks is a stud.  Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are a nice combination in the background.  There’s been a lot of unrest surrounding Osi Umenyiora’s contract, and top pick Prince Amukamara looks to be out for a couple months, but otherwise they are pretty solid on defense.  As long as they can avoid a big overblown New York meltdown and the calls for Coughlin to be fired subside, they should put together a solid season.

Dallas Cowboys

Last year was a rocky season in Dallas, losing Tony Romo to injury and going through a midseason coaching change.  Now, Tony Romo is healthy, and even if he isn’t Jon Kitna can hold down the fort for a few games.  They have released a lot of players, especially on the offensive line, so that would be my first concern if I were a Cowboy fan.  Defensively, I like their front 7; Jay Ratliff and DeMarcus Ware are among the best at their positions.  Their secondary is a weakness but they have brought in Rob Ryan to replace Wade Phillips, which could reenergize the team.  Overall I see them having their ups and downs, but falling behind New York and Philadelphia in the division.

Washington Redskins (6-10)

Mike Shanahan is in his second year as head coach and has not been afraid to make big moves.  Albert Haynesworth, Donovan McNabb, Carlos Rogers, and Clinton Portis are gone.  Rex Grossman and John Beck are competing for the starting job, so that should tell you something.  I don’t feel that they have the difference makers on either side of the ball to compete in this division.

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[1] Pete Says:  Well, he was a QB in the NFL.  Even if he did audible in the Metrodome and cost the Bears a game in the 90s. 

[2] Pete Says:  Clipboard Jesus!

[3] Full Disclosure: Patrick submitted this to me before the entire Giants defense got hurt.  I wouldn’t have had them 2^nd in the division before or after, because I believe in Dallas.

NFC South Preview

by Pete and Patrick

Atlanta Falcons

Pete Says: The Falcons have the proper, self-promotional buzz to be the Greatest Show on Turf Redux.  Moreover they have the personnel to do it.  The draft-day trade that landed Julio Jones raised a multitude of eyebrows, but heading into the start of the season the move seems to be carefully planned.  Atlanta knew they needed another receiver to free up Roddy White even more and they went and got the best guy they could be sure would be on their roster once the ‘lockout’ was over.  Adding Ray Edwards on defense could add to the Falcon’s abysmal pass rush, but as I wrote earlier it could also expose Ray Edwards as not that good.  Regardless, though, Atlanta plays in a division where the possible best-case scenario for every team would be the playoffs (and yes I’m willing to put Carolina in that group).  The Falcons have the needed pieces to be great, though, and I’ve got them winning this division.

Patrick Says: The big headline here is the big move they made in the draft to move up and get Julio Jones.  They lost Michael Jenkins in free agency, so Roddy White, Harry Douglas, and Julio Jones will be the primary targets of Matt Ryan.  Matt Ryan is a very accurate passer and a good decision maker, as evidenced by his 28-9 TD/INT ratio last year.  One of the underrated signings of the Free Agency period was Ray Edwards by Atlanta.  He was productive DE alongside the big Williams tackles in Minnesota, and now he is expected to bolster the Falcon pass run opposite John Abraham.  The big weakness in Atlanta is the secondary, as evidenced by Aaron Rodgers’ dismantling of the Falcons in the playoffs last year.  They need to find a solid nickel back to be a legitimate contender it today’s pass happy NFL, especially in this division with their schedule.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pete Says: While the majority of sports media talking heads are picking Tampa Bay to regress because of their felonious disposition and a weak offensive line I’m all in with the Bucs.  Josh Freeman is a modern hybrid that reminds me of the Randall Cunningham of my youth.  LeGarrette Blount is a good story of a young man who was obviously troubled but has found success.  Moreover, the Buccaneers are stacked with young talent that could explode at any moment and take advantage of a schedule that is neither significantly favorable nor unfavorable.  Don’t be surprised to see Tampa Bay challenging for the South crown late into the season.  My bold prediction for this season is that Tampa Bay will win at least one playoff game.

Patrick Says: I’m going to preface this by saying this division is a crapshoot.  Historically, a different team wins this division every year, which jives with the NFL trend that there is 50% turnover each year in playoff teams.  So, this tells me that either Atlanta or New Orleans are not making the playoffs.  There’s going to be a log jam at the top of this division, and I can’t really see any team winning more than 10 games.  The oddsmakers see it about the same way, although they aren’t as high on Tampa Bay as I am, although a lot of that is a gut feeling based on the historic up and down swings of the NFC South.

I see another 10-6 season in the cards for Tampa, however this time it will get them a playoff berth.  Part of me thinks last season was kind of a fluke.  Freeman only threw 6 picks, and LeGarrette (I like to punch people) Blount rushed for 1000 yards.  But it really seems like Freeman is the real deal.  He keeps the team in the game, and makes big plays when necessary.  The team seems to be working well with coach Raheem Morris and they seem to be building another good defense.  I really like the picks of Adrian Clayborn & Da’Quan Bowers at DE from this April’s draft.  

New Orleans Saints

Pete Says: New Orleans has cast off the underwhelming spectre of Reggie Bush in favor of rookie Mark Ingram, a more traditional tailback.  The Saints’ offense remains reliant on Drew Brees but is also still a bit gimmicky.  Ingram had an excellent preseason and he will be able to help the Saints score more efficiently.  If New Orleans hopes to avenge their playoff embarrassment at the hands of Seattle, though, their defense will have to be more consistent. 

Patrick Says: I see the Saints as being the odd man out this year in the division.  I like their roster, especially on offense.  Drew Brees is an elite quarterback.  They have playmakers on offense.  I am not really worried about Bush leaving, and the Ingram pick was nice.  Gregg Williams is a good defensive coordinator, and he does well with what he has.  Unfortunately their lack of a big time pass rusher on the defensive line usually means they have to gamble with exotic blitzes and the like.  They make a lot of plays, but they give up a lot too.  Good teams will take advantage, and they play a lot of good teams in 2011.

Carolina Panthers

Pete Says: At the beginning of the year I was excited to tear into Carolina for their foolish offseason expenditures.  That was before they hired Ron Rivera, stole Greg Olsen from the Bears, and managed to make (S)Cam Newton look at least as good as Tarvaris Jackson.  The insane decisions to overpay average-to-good defensive players has already been covered well by Grantland’s Bill Barnwell, but also deserves mention.  I’m afraid to say it, but if the league sleeps on Carolina they could be this year’s worst to first story.

Patrick Says: They had the number one pick this year, and I don’t know if that will change.  People are talking about Cam Newton, but expect struggles if he starts this year.  They have a decent O line, and resigned DeAngelo Williams to go along with Jonathan Stewart so they should be able to run the ball.  They resigned Charles Johnson, who really shined after Julius Peppers left.  I’m not a big fan of the linebacking corps, and their DB group, but what do I know.  I will tell you what I do know is that they have too difficult a schedule this year to eke out more than 3 or 4 wins.

Thursday Picks

Football Gambling is back!


You can track my magically mediocre picks right here at The Sports Renaissance.  My special winning formulas are available for $1 million (cash), Emma Watson's phone number, or a six pack of Miller Chill.


Only two major games tonight, so here goes.


NCAA:


Arizona Wildcats (1-0) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys [-14] (1-0)


Both teams returned a good number of starters, which is especially important for Oklahoma State as they hold on to maybe the best receiver in college football, Justin Blackmon.  It would not surprise me to someday see his box score read 5 Rec, 325 yds, 4 TDs.  But Arizona comes off a disappointing season, and even on the road won't be a pushover.  Two TDs might be too much here.
Picks:  Arizona +14     Over 66


NFL:


New Orleans Saints (0-0) @ Green Bay Packers [-4.5] (0-0)


Sparing you all the platitudes (except about how crappy the kickoff concert is going to be) I remind you that the Packers are a 'public team' in Vegas parlance, which means a significant portion of their money comes in from square bettors and general fans.  Enough money has come in to move the line from -3 to -4.5, and as I have the Packers at slightly more than a 3.5 point favorite I'll take New Orleans and the points here.
Picks:  New Orleans +4.5     Under 48

NFC North Preview

by Pete and Patrick

Green Bay Packers

Pete Says:  It breaks my heart, literally, to write this, but the Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFL.  They won a Super Bowl last year basically without a running game, shed some dead weight (read: Nick Barnett), realized Ryan Grant is a huge liability and are likely going to give the majority of the workload to James Starks, and get a semi-elite tight end back.  Fuck the Eagles, the Packers are phenomenally improved and they hardly had to spend any money!  The only questionable move they had was resigning James Jones (who could have easily gotten overpaid elsewhere).  As a Bears fan I’m praying that I can get James Jones in every fantasy league just so he can be that guy who sucks big time but you hold onto forever for no conceivable reason.  If you’re shopping early I’ll take booze for Christmas.

Patrick Says: The Super Bowl champs are in good position to make another deep playoff run.  The schedule is not particularly difficult, but it has become cliche to say “everyone gives a Super Bowl champ their best shot every week.”  The NFL is always a struggle, and Super Bowl champions usually lose some talent, and that has been the case this year with Nick Barnett, Cullen Jenkins & Brandon Jackson being some of the bigger name losses.  It has gotten to the point though where Packer fans trust Ted Thompsons’s rebuild through the draft approach, and the Packers have weapons galore around Aaron Rodgers, who is in my opinion the best quarterback in the NFL.  The keys to this team will be the offensive and defensive lines.  Left guard is a little iffy, and Clifton is not getting any younger.  BJ Raji is a bona fide stud, and Pickett is a solid vet, but behind them it is a lot of young guys trying to make an impact.  Despite stalwarts Nick Collins, Charles Woodson, & Tramon Williams there is some concern with the secondary.  Can Sam Shields & Jarrett Bush continue to develop?  Will Peprah or Burnett play safety opposite Collins?  These are questions most teams would like to have, and the Packers will win the division this year.

Detroit Lions

Pete Says: This is the uber-upside team.  Every piece of official Lions anything and every player except Ndomakung Suh should come with a Surgeon-General like warning that states outcomes are entirely contingent upon each player’s health but all bets are still action.  I shit you not that I can make a statistical case that Matthew Stafford’s best potential year would lead all QBs in the NFL.[1]  The problem is, this Motor City wet dream everyone’s having depends on more contingency factors that the path to humanoid multi-cellular life.  But can you image a healthy and rested Nick Fairley joining the Lions halfway through the season?!   The Lions biggest hole is consistency in running back production, but as the Packers showed last year teams can and do survive on passing alone.  At least for a while.

Patrick Says: It has become chic to say that the Lions will be the surprise playoff team in the NFC this year.  I’m not quite sure about that, but they’ll give it a run.  If Matt Stafford is healthy they have the weapons on offense to put up some points, especially considering they will have 11 dome games this year.  Calvin Johnson is probably the most talented receiver in the NFL.  Ndamakong Suh is a talent that I have never seen on the defensive interior (that includes you Julius Peppers).  Adding Fairely can’t hurt.  I’m not so sure about the rest of their defense, but they’ll win some games and get their fans excited again.  Playoffs might have to wait another year though.

Minnesota Vikings

Pete Says: The Vikings are going to be good because Donovan McNabb has a chip on his shoulder and Adrian Peterson is the toughest running back in the NFL.  Their dearth of elite wideout possibilities is about equal to last year[2] and it’s been proven that wide receivers don’t impact the game as much as believed because they are entirely dependent upon their QB to get them the ball and most can’t block for shit.[3]  The most insightful analysis I’ve heard on the departure of Ray Edwards was that leaving Minnesota might expose him as not very good.  And if Jared Allen and company don’t have to pick up his slack Minnesota’s defensive line could improve.  Their secondary still has more holes than Stringer Bell at the end of Season 3 of The Wire, though, so shoot for .500 Vikings fans.

Patrick Says: This is a transitional year in Minnesota.  Most Viking fans I know are glad that Leslie Frasier is running the show now.  The Brett Favre experiment is over, and Tarvaris Jackson is gone.  Here come Christian Ponder and Donovan McNabb.  Minnesota surprised everybody by grabbing Ponder in the 1st round.  Obviously they expect him to be their QB of the future.  Donovan McNabb is going to try to win now while the team waits for Ponder to develop.  Adrian Peterson is an outstanding football player, and the premier running back in the NFL.  Ironically, with their former Defensive Coordinator as the head coach now, it seems that the defense will be the weak spot of the team.  They’ve lost some key people, and that secondary gets torn apart against elite opponents.

Chicago Bears

Pete Says: My Bears are equal parts cheap uncle to a pro football team and Island of Misfits.  The Bears enjoy continuity, not success, so here we go for another round of Lovie Smith helping his friend Mike Martz try to sabotage Lovie’s career.  For this year’s incarnation of The Greatest Feaux on Earth Martz has tried to basically recreate the ’99-’01 Rams with the 2008 Dallas Cowboys plus a tough yet headstrong scrambler who holds the ball too long and still believes arm strength trumps accuracy.  Oh and this is occurring in Chicago, where if the wind at Soldier Field isn’t at least 25mph the fans are pretty sure the earth stopped rotating and the field was last resodded when Eisenhower was president.  Being notorious cheapskates will be a double edged sword for the Bears this year.  Quibbling over a paltry $500,000 with Olin Kreutz and then releasing him actually adds a modicum of stability to the offensive line, but refusing to give a raise to 6-time Pro Bowler Lance Briggs – who also just happens to be the best defensive player (sorry Julius Peppers) – will wreak havoc on a defense that looked to be both stable and improved going into the preseason.  7-9 here we come.

Patrick Says: The Bears will be another casualty of playoff team turnover on a year to year basis in the NFL.  The NFC North & South play each other this year and will beat each other up.  The Bears have signed ex-Cowboys Roy Williams and Marion Barber.  While those players were often viewed as underachievers in Dallas, I think they fit well with the Bears.  The defensive line is very good, so good in fact that they signed ex-Jets bust Vernon Gholston because they can afford to.  I will never discount the Bears’ LB corps, but I am still not sure about the secondary.  The breaks will go against Chicago this year though, and the fans will be after Cutler again.

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[1] This case also argues for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colt McCoy in the top 5 and Peyton Manning 15^th.  Is it flawed?  Probably.  Or genius and revolutionary. 

[2] Sidney Rice missed so much time he was almost a footnote on the 2010 season (ha ha). 

[3] Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White are the top three wide receivers in some order.  Combined they have 8 postseason appearances and 6 are Fitzgerald’s.  White got bounced in ’08 and again in 2010 and Johnson has never made the playoffs because he’s never played with a good quarterback. 

Why Ian Desmond is the Brewers' answer at SS

by Luke Hoeppner

Milwaukee Brewers starting shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt makes $4MM this season and has a team option for next year at $6MM with a $2MM buyout.  I propose the Brewers attempt to trade for Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond and buyout Betancourt next season.

Today, Stephen Lombardozzi is starting at 2B for the Nationals.  I bring this up because he's supposed to be their everyday 2B next year and they plan to move Danny Espinosa to SS, his natural position.  There are reports that the Nats are interested in trading Desmond and I don't think the Brewers would have to give up that much.  Its not going to take a Brett Lawrie to get him...perhaps like a prospect ranked 5-10 in our system. 

Ian Desmond makes $441,500 this season.  He's arbitration eligible for the first time next season and doesn't hit free agency until 2016 meaning he's under team control for the next 4 years.  So far this season, Desmond has 7 HR, 39 RBI, 53 runs, and 22 SB while hitting .244/.291 in 547 PA.  In 2010, Desmond hit .269/.308 while playing an entire season.  Betancourt has 10 HR, 56 RBI, 45 runs and 2 SB while hitting .259/.288 in 517 PA this season.  So basically, Betancourt has slightly more power and Desmond has significantly more SB.  I think the differences in RBI and R are mostly a reflection of spot in the batting order (Desmond has hit leadoff among other spots, whereas Betancourt has hit 6th or toward the bottom most of the season).  Desmond seems capable of hitting around .250-.270, 8-10 HR, and 25 SB.  Plus, he's only 26 so there is upside here.  This is only Desmond's 2nd full year in the majors.  Perhaps he peaks in the next year or two and manages to hit .270-.280, 15 HR, and 30 SB. 

Next, let's look at defense.  UZR (ultimate zone rating) is a common metric for defense.  Betancourt has a UZR of -8.9 this season compared to Desmond's -2.3.  However, Betancourt has committed 17 errors in 1127 innings compared to Desmond's 22 errors in 1137 innings.  While Desmond isn't known as a great defensive SS, he at least won't be any worse than Betancourt defensively.  Given Desmond's superior UZR and roughly similar number of errors, one would expect Desmond to be a modest defesive upgrade over Betancourt.

I think Desmond would be a much cheaper option with some nice upside.  Also, he'd provide some speed for the Brewers.  Given his low OBP, I don't think he projects as a leadoff hitter, but he'd fit nicely toward the bottom of our lineup.  The Brewers should buyout Betancourt for $2MM and trade for Ian Desmond.

See you in another life, brotha!

AFC South Preview

by Patrick and Pete

Patrick Says: They have a difficult schedule. Their star QB is hurt for pretty much the first time in his career, but he’ll be ok by the regular season. If they don’t lose every one of their receivers this year again, I see them pulling the division out like they always do. That’s what the Peyton Manning Colts do, I’ll give them that.

Pete Says: As the media has recently revealed, the possibility of Peyton Manning missing a game is obviously a sure sign of the impending apocalypse. How the world will function with out the QB foil to (the superhandsome) Tom Brady might be the greatest mystery since “How did Antoine Walker actually spend 100 million dollars?” Needless to say, the Colts are actually a very good team even without Peyton Manning. That’s right, I said it. In fact, the Colts have the talent to produce top-10 seasons at all the offensive skill positions even if they miss out on Manning for a game or two. Moreover, they used their abbreviated offseason to sign defensive help like Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson.[1] Anderson may be past his prime, but Harris could wreak havoc lining up next to Dwight Freeney, Tommie just needs to stay healthy.

Patrick Says: They have a quarterback. They have a stud WR & productive RB. They have young talent on defense. They focused on defense in the draft. They missed out on Asomugha, but did sign Jonathan Joseph from the Bengals. I just can’t give them a 10 win season quite yet. They always seem to blow games they shouldn’t, and I am not convinced that Schaub is much more than a good Madden QB. Some are predicting this is their year to take it from Indianapolis, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Pete Says: Houston will be hot on Indy’s tail for the top of the division, especially considering they open the year against the Colts who might be without Peyton Manning for that game. Having a late-season bye (Week 11) and a rather favorable projection for their last 6 games, the Texans should be able to take advantage of these things even if Arian Foster is not entirely healthy. Even though he’s only played 22 NFL games, Foster projects to demolish the competition this year, and a solid running game will help hide how bad a quarterback Matt Schaub really is. The Texans have gotten away with running a spread offense that looks a lot like the ones you see during college football games because the lack of complexity is actually enhanced by the stunning athleticism at the skill positions. Like the Steelers and Jets, the Texans team remains pretty consistent: their biggest loss is probably fullback Vonta Leach, Gary Kubiak inexplicably returned as coach, and the addition of ex-Bear Danieal Manning to the defensive backfield might allow Houston to set a world record for missed tackles. Bet the over every week and the over for Houston’s win total (9) and you will be able to throw a killer watch party for the Texans’ first round playoff exit.

Patrick Says: Another shaky QB situation in Jacksonville, as Garrard is on his way out as a legitimate NFL starter so the team drafted Blaine Gabbert. Their offense revolves around MJD, which is not bad, but that’s not going to win a division. And their defense surely won’t. Just try to avoid the “moving to LA” talk.

Pete Says: The Jaguars biffed on drafting Tim Tebow last year so to make up for it (since they were obviously the only ones who didn’t think Tim Tebow playing pro ball in Florida could sell tickets) they took Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert, like almost all other QBs from this year’s draft (Andy Dalton excluded), has a set of sills with discernable holes. He is not a better player than David Garrard. Maurice Jones-Drew is (supposedly) healthy, but the wideouts and defensive core are still shaky. The Jaguars’ schedule is also rather unforgiving, so a 6 or 7 win season is likely best-case scenario.

Patrick Says: Another AFC South team in transition. Jeff Fisher is gone. So are Kerry Collins & Vince Young (ok, that might be a good thing). Chris Johnson is holding out. Matt Hasselbeck is bald. Jake Locker couldn't complete 55 % of his passes in college. Can you say, “rebuilding year”? See if you can put an NFL team together by the time Peyton Manning retires, how about that.

Pete Says: Chris Johnson’s holdout and resultant missed preseason games are actually the least of Tennessee’s worries. The departure of Jeff Fisher and any semblance of good defenders (other than middle linebacker Barrett Ruud and professional antagonist Cortland Finnegan) has withered a formerly formidable Titan’s defense. The fact that Tennessee was able to improve their quarterback situation with the signing of a 35 year-old Matt Hasselbeck is alternate parts sad and funny, but it is actually good news for 8^th overall pick Jake Locker. Regardless of his completion percentage issues, he has the possibility of becoming a very good pro quarterback. In fact, there are knowledgeable scouts that compare Locker’s potential to that of a certain Southern Mississippi Golden Eagle QB of the late ‘80s. In case you’re wondering, Brett Favre’s collegiate completion percentage was 52.4%. Potential aside, though, the Titans will need much better weapons at receiver if they hope to return to playoff contention. Nate Washington is inconsistent and Kenny Britt is obviously insane, so it should be an interesting year in Nashville. I’ve said it before multiple times, but teams with continuity issues aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt this year and that’s why I have Tennessee brining up the rear in the AFC South.

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[1] A move that Mike Lombardi criticized (!) on the 8/31 edition of the B.S. Report. Lombardi’s criticism confused me, as I thought the point of free agency was to get better at positions where you needed help. But what do I know, I was never a Raiders GM who lucked into one of Rich Gannon’s two good years en route to a Super Bowl loss.