-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you haven't yet, please also check out Jonah Keri's article on Grantland about Braun.
Patrick Says: They have a difficult schedule. Their star QB is hurt for pretty much the first time in his career, but he’ll be ok by the regular season. If they don’t lose every one of their receivers this year again, I see them pulling the division out like they always do. That’s what the Peyton Manning Colts do, I’ll give them that.
Pete Says: As the media has recently revealed, the possibility of Peyton Manning missing a game is obviously a sure sign of the impending apocalypse. How the world will function with out the QB foil to (the superhandsome) Tom Brady might be the greatest mystery since “How did Antoine Walker actually spend 100 million dollars?” Needless to say, the Colts are actually a very good team even without Peyton Manning. That’s right, I said it. In fact, the Colts have the talent to produce top-10 seasons at all the offensive skill positions even if they miss out on Manning for a game or two. Moreover, they used their abbreviated offseason to sign defensive help like Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson.[1] Anderson may be past his prime, but Harris could wreak havoc lining up next to Dwight Freeney, Tommie just needs to stay healthy.
Patrick Says: They have a quarterback. They have a stud WR & productive RB. They have young talent on defense. They focused on defense in the draft. They missed out on Asomugha, but did sign Jonathan Joseph from the Bengals. I just can’t give them a 10 win season quite yet. They always seem to blow games they shouldn’t, and I am not convinced that Schaub is much more than a good Madden QB. Some are predicting this is their year to take it from Indianapolis, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Pete Says: Houston will be hot on Indy’s tail for the top of the division, especially considering they open the year against the Colts who might be without Peyton Manning for that game. Having a late-season bye (Week 11) and a rather favorable projection for their last 6 games, the Texans should be able to take advantage of these things even if Arian Foster is not entirely healthy. Even though he’s only played 22 NFL games, Foster projects to demolish the competition this year, and a solid running game will help hide how bad a quarterback Matt Schaub really is. The Texans have gotten away with running a spread offense that looks a lot like the ones you see during college football games because the lack of complexity is actually enhanced by the stunning athleticism at the skill positions. Like the Steelers and Jets, the Texans team remains pretty consistent: their biggest loss is probably fullback Vonta Leach, Gary Kubiak inexplicably returned as coach, and the addition of ex-Bear Danieal Manning to the defensive backfield might allow Houston to set a world record for missed tackles. Bet the over every week and the over for Houston’s win total (9) and you will be able to throw a killer watch party for the Texans’ first round playoff exit.
Patrick Says: Another shaky QB situation in Jacksonville, as Garrard is on his way out as a legitimate NFL starter so the team drafted Blaine Gabbert. Their offense revolves around MJD, which is not bad, but that’s not going to win a division. And their defense surely won’t. Just try to avoid the “moving to LA” talk.
Pete Says: The Jaguars biffed on drafting Tim Tebow last year so to make up for it (since they were obviously the only ones who didn’t think Tim Tebow playing pro ball in Florida could sell tickets) they took Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert, like almost all other QBs from this year’s draft (Andy Dalton excluded), has a set of sills with discernable holes. He is not a better player than David Garrard. Maurice Jones-Drew is (supposedly) healthy, but the wideouts and defensive core are still shaky. The Jaguars’ schedule is also rather unforgiving, so a 6 or 7 win season is likely best-case scenario.
Patrick Says: Another AFC South team in transition. Jeff Fisher is gone. So are Kerry Collins & Vince Young (ok, that might be a good thing). Chris Johnson is holding out. Matt Hasselbeck is bald. Jake Locker couldn't complete 55 % of his passes in college. Can you say, “rebuilding year”? See if you can put an NFL team together by the time Peyton Manning retires, how about that.
Pete Says: Chris Johnson’s holdout and resultant missed preseason games are actually the least of Tennessee’s worries. The departure of Jeff Fisher and any semblance of good defenders (other than middle linebacker Barrett Ruud and professional antagonist Cortland Finnegan) has withered a formerly formidable Titan’s defense. The fact that Tennessee was able to improve their quarterback situation with the signing of a 35 year-old Matt Hasselbeck is alternate parts sad and funny, but it is actually good news for 8th overall pick Jake Locker. Regardless of his completion percentage issues, he has the possibility of becoming a very good pro quarterback. In fact, there are knowledgeable scouts that compare Locker’s potential to that of a certain Southern Mississippi Golden Eagle QB of the late ‘80s. In case you’re wondering, Brett Favre’s collegiate completion percentage was 52.4%. Potential aside, though, the Titans will need much better weapons at receiver if they hope to return to playoff contention. Nate Washington is inconsistent and Kenny Britt is obviously insane, so it should be an interesting year in Nashville. I’ve said it before multiple times, but teams with continuity issues aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt this year and that’s why I have Tennessee brining up the rear in the AFC South.
[1] A move that Mike Lombardi criticized (!) on the 8/31 edition of the B.S. Report. Lombardi’s criticism confused me, as I thought the point of free agency was to get better at positions where you needed help. But what do I know, I was never a Raiders GM who lucked into one of Rich Gannon’s two good years en route to a Super Bowl loss.
San Diego Chargers
Patrick Says: The Chargers didn’t make a huge splash in the draft or free agency, but they have the best QB in the division and they’ll have both Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates back and hopefully healthy. I don’t know much about their defense, but lets be serious, someone has to win this division.
Pete Says: Too often the Chargers have had to just get out of their own way to win the division and failed to do so. With health on their side and some improvement at the running back position (could Ryan Mathews be a post-hype prospect?) San Diego should not only win the West but I actually have them finishing as the #1 seed in the AFC. Philip Rivers has quietly been a top-5 NFL quarterback and if he can finally develop a rapport with his skill position players the Chargers could be a quite formidable opponent. Patrick is absolutely right when he says he doesn’t know much about their defense, and with Ron River gone to lead Carolina the Bolts will have to rely on their offense more than usual. And that could be quite an experience.
Kansas City Chiefs
am in a couple years, provided Matt Cassel improves as a QB. He is serviceable, but anyone who saw that playoff game vs. Baltimore last year cannot seriously consider him to be in the upper echelon. But they’re a team that overachieved last year and they won’t get the needed lucky breaks this year.
Pete Says: If Kansas City can solve the inconsistencies of their offensive skill positions they should have no problem winning 8 games. The 5-year contract the Chiefs just gave to Tamba Hali helped lock up their defensive anchor. Hali is accompanied by defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey and Kelly Gregg, fellow linebacker Derrick Johnson, and defensive backs Brandon Flowers and Eric Barry. The quality and experience of the Kansas City defense will help make up for the luck that helped the Chiefs to a 10-6 record last year, but if Jamaal Charles has the same trouble finding the endzone the Chiefs will be pretty mediocre.
Oakland Raiders
Patrick Says: Another new coach in Oakland, the player friendly Hue Jackson. They actually seemed to have a decent draft, not reaching for any “project players.” Of course not even having a first round pick makes that impossible I suppose. They lost Nnamdi Asomugha to free agency, which was expected, and gave way too much money to Michael Huff, but they do seem to have some direction. But I just don’t see them being a serious contender in the West because of the QB situation. Pop Quiz: Who is the Raiders’ starting QB? Exactly.
Pete Says: Oh Raiders. Somehow they manage to sell to their fans that it’s oaky to pick project players (JaMarcus Russell, Derrius Hayward-Bey) or go after proven mediocre free agents (Jason Campbell). No wonder they’re so happy to kick the shit out of 49er fans. Against my better judgement I’m guessing that the Raiders luck into a few wins this year an finish in the middle of the pack. Their QB situation is complicated, the timeshare
between Darren McFadden and Michael Bush never seems to play out the way it should, and it’s quite possible that they have the worst receiving core in the AFC.[1] Moreover, the signing of Kevin Boss fills a need with the loss of Zach Miller, but Boss is hardly as good as Miller was. Finally, the loss of Asomugha severely weakens an already suspect Raider defense. The Raiders schedule holds a bit of luck, however, as they face two divisions (the AFC East and NFC North) not known for their passing prowess.
Denver Broncos
They have made some big changes to turn this franchise around. The brief McDaniels era is over. John Fox is in. John Elway is a high profile VP of football operations. The Broncos went heavy on the defensive side of the ball in the draft, with their first selection being Von Miller, an expected passing rushing stud who should go nicely with Elvis Dumervil.
To me, this will be a regrouping year in Denver, after a poor performance last year. The headline the media won’t shut up about is the Orton/Tebow situation, but in all reality, this should be a done deal. Orton is a proven NFL starter. No, he doesn’t light the world on fire, but he understands the offense and manages games well. Tebow is not an NFL QB, plain and simple. But looking at the schedule I see Denver possibly going 2-3 into their bye, and the call for Tebow will be coming hard from moronic fans and media. This is why I do not consider them a serious threat in the AFC West, and I would be shocked if they ended up going even 8-8.
Pete Says: Denver actually has the best running back corps in the West, but that’s about it. Kyle Orton has been above average the last couple years but the introduction of John Fox will increase the rushing load (and thus the value of Moreno and Willis McGahee) while reducing the chance for Orton to produce top QB numbers. I’m not sure what will go wrong first, but Brandon Lloyd will regress based on the fact that last year’s numbers were triple his career average or based on the fact that 2011 was only the third year of his 8 year career in which he played all 16 games. You’ve probably heard this enough already and are getting legitimately sick of it, but it’s tough to trust a new coach and new system to succeed after a locked out offseason. Denver and their shaky defense will bring up the rear in the AFC West.[1] Although, let’s be honest. That race is going to be a tight one between Oakland, Denver (yes, Denver), Cleveland, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.
English Premier League Preview
by Brandon
The real Soccer season is upon us. The MLS with their aging “stars” from other countries is a poor excuse for a professional league. As the infamous WWE legend Iron Sheik would say “Americha, Haack phthchoo!”
Looking at the English Premier League teams, it is a top heavy league broken down as such; two or three teams battling for the league championship, two or three teams battling for a Champions League bid, a handful of teams hovering in the middle of the pack, and then up to six teams fighting to stay in the EPL.
The problem is that often the teams hoping to avoid relegation are the smaller clubs is that they do not have the funds to go get a Wesley Sneijder or a Christiano Ronaldo. A smaller club’s best chance is to make an impact in the Carling Cup or make a bid for the Europa League. Confused with all these Leagues and Cups? I hear you! In the end, what teams want is silverware.
Getting back to the English Premier League, Sir Alex Ferguson, skipper of Manchester United last year’s winner of the EPL, thinks it will take 84 points to with the league. A lot has to go right over 38 games to get to 84 points. Last year, I think Manchester United was lucky to get to 80 points with all the injuries sustained. This year, I think Chelsea has the right tools in goal, defense, and a superstar striker in Fernando Torres. It will be very difficult for Manchester United to repeat with a rookie in goal and a sometimes suspect defense, but I see bright spots in goalkeeper De Gea. Manchester United can help establish their prominence by signing Wesley Sneijder from Inter Milan, which will be the biggest signing of the year. Arsenal have not made enough moves in my opinion to make a run at the league title, and if they lose Cesc Fabregas it will really hurt their chances.
by Pete
The first fixture of the Premier League was, in a word, interesting. The Everton-Tottenham match was postponed due to rioting that had a distinctly Rodney King aura to it.
Arsenal showed a serious lack of offensive creativity in the biggest drawing match of the weekend at Newcastle. The drama surrounding the possible transfers of Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona and Samir Nasri to Manchester City drew some of Arsenal’s focus and the rest was rent asunder by the tough (and dirty) play of Joey Barton and his stupid haircut. Gervinho’s red was deserved, but Barton should have drawn one as well.
Norwich City pulled even with Wigan at 1-1 in first half extra time. The score would be the eventual end result between two teams likely fighting to avoid relegation at year’s end.
Bolton welcomed Queens Park to the Premiership with a flurry of goals in front of only 15,000 fans at Loftus Road. QPR were able to find the net twice, but the first was disallowed because Blackpool transfer DJ Campbell was offside, and the second was an own goal in the 67th minute charged to Daniel Gabbidon.
Aston Villa and Fulham played to a tough 0-0 draw that saw Fulham backed up more than they should have been for dominating time of possession, but keeper Mark Schwerzer and his solid defense were able to hold off Villa.
Wolves went into Ewood Park and after trailing 0-1 scored two unanswered (one in the 22’ by Steven Fletcher, my pick for most underrated player in the Premiership) to take all 3 points.
Arguably the best match on opening Saturday was the 1-1 draw between Sunderland and Liverpool. After biffing a penaltykick at 7’, this year’s eventual top goal scorer Luis Suarez headed in a nice cross from Charlie Adam on a set piece in the 12th minute. Not to be outdone, however, the men in teal took advantage of a throw in to also hit a nice cross that Sebastian Larsson snapped back across the face of goal at 57’. A flurry of cards and subs would slow the second half a bit, and both teams appeared content to walk away with a point each coming out of the opening fixture.
Sunday’s matches saw a confused Chelsea squad wonder how it failed to score against the relentless Stoke City pressure that it seemed to have solved in the second half. Also vexing Chelsea fans (myself foremost among them) was new manager Andre Villas-Boas’s omission of Ivory Coast great Didier Drogba from the game entirely. AVB shot to the top of the Portugese table with Porto last year and even won the Europa League, but needs to figure English soccer out fast if he’s to take advantage of the easy first quarter of Chelsea’s schedule.
Manchester United got an early goal from Wayne Rooney (13’) but after that needed an own goal to eek out a victory against West Brom on the road. The Red Devils’ new keeper David De Gea showed what I believe the English call “blush” and what we call being green, but the strong United midfield and back line kept him out of any real trouble, although it wasn’t pretty.
Perhaps the most exciting match of the opening fixture was Manchester City’s 4-0 victory over Swansea City at Etihad. The game started slow and City had a plethora of chances turned away by a staunch Swansea side that looks to make a statement and obviously has no plans of a return to the Championship after just one year in the top league. But then Edzin Dzeko scored a close shot at 57’ and the floodgates opened. Touted transfer Sergio Aguero subbed on in the 60th minute and after only 8 minutes of play took a gorgeous cross from Micah Ricahrds to cap a solid end-to-end possession. David Silva would add in the 71’ and Aguero again in stoppage time to propel City to the top of the table.
The second fixture finally saw a full slate of games. Chelsea, Wolves, Aston Villa, and Man United all won at home, with the former needing to come from behind to do it and the latter two leading all the way. I’m not sure how the riots in Tottenham affected Spurs’ play, but like too many road teams in the Premiership recently they seemed to hold out strong until the first goal against and then melt like butter.
Draws seemed underrepresented in the second fixture, as Wigan tied at Swansea 0-0 and Stoke striker Kenwyne Jones hit a crushing blow in the last minute of stoppage time to snatch the victory from home side Norwich City. Swansea probably should have taken three points against a weak Wigan side, but it appears that Scott Sinclair is their only real offensive threat and that is insufficient for a top league team.
The slew of road victories continued in week two as Queens Park, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester City all took 3 points. Queens Park scored their lone goal in 31’ minute on a right-footed-veering-right shot; exactly the shot that gives Tim Howard fits.[1] It didn’t help that Everton isn’t fielding a fully healthy squad, but they can take the positive of the low scoring game away. Like Everton, Newcastle thrives on a strong defense and a lot of one goal games.[2] Sunderland and Newcastle split possession in their fixture at the Stadium of Light, and for a team like Sunderland to win in that situation they’re going to need to have the ball much more often.
Liverpool walked all over the self-destructing Arsenal and Luis Suarez scored again. (In fairness, though Liverpool did not look too good, but they were able to do what top flight teams to: take advantage of opponents in disarray.) Frimpong drew red (two yellows) for Arsenal at 70’, Koscielny hurt himself 15’ in, and they still hadn’t squared up what they were doing with Samir Nasri. The Gunners could be in some serious trouble this season if Arsene Wenger can’t work his usual magic (like perhaps taking advantage of the player strikes in Serie A and La Liga?).
In a battle at the top of the table, Man City was able to hold off a storming home Bolton side. Two games in, we can be sure that Man City is going to be phenomenal offensively, even if Tevez leaves.[3] This game is interesting for the Wanderers, though, as they have succeeded early. The schedule gets tougher, though, as the next three fixtures are at Liverpool and then hosting Manchester United and Norwich. If Bolton can escape those three games with at least 5 points they could be in a nice early position.
[1] Unless, of course, he’s playing Chelsea. Against the Blues Howard fills the goal and stops everything that gets near him…much to my chagrin.
[2] Joey Barton’s play in the first fixture against Arsenal is probably what triggered his transfer to Queens Park. Barton is a tough but extremely sloppy and risky defender to employ on a team like Newcastle that has to count on tight, smart play.
[3] And especially because City finalized the transfer of Samir Nasri from Arsenal.