Saturday, January 14, 2012

Patrick's Divisional Picks

This is what many consider the best weekend of NFL football, figured I should make some picks.

New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3)

I have a hard time with this one.  All season I have thought that the 49ers couldn't hold up to the Packers or Saints offenses.  I still think that, but I'm not as confident in it.  New Orleans is not the same team on the road.  They just aren't.  San Francisco actually averages as much points at home as New Orleans does at home.  I really want to pick the Niners, but when it comes down to it, I don't think they can score enough TDs.  They stall too much in the red zone, settling for Field Goals.  New Orleans 27-26

Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)

Tim Tebow is a joke.  The Patriots defense is a joke.  New England keeps getting down 16 to 21 points in the 1st quarter, which they obviously can't do in a playoff game.  The Broncos keep sucking for most of the game, then pulling something out at the end.  Neither styles are very successful for playoff football.  The Patriots have lost their last 2 home playoff games.  If that happens again Bill Belicheck should just retire.  The spread is a little high (13), and NE hasn't been very successful covering those high spreads this year.  New England 31-20

Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)

I like what Houston doing before all these QB injuries.  They still have some talented players, but going on the road to Baltimore to face that defense is going to be too much for them.  And they don't have Andy Dalton to fall apart for them.  Not that Joe Flacco is great, but he'll do what he needs to get the victory.  Baltimore 27-15

New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1)

People seem to have forgotten how good the Packers are. Will Green Bay be able to score as well in the cold.  Here's a hint, yes.  In Dec/Jan they scored 46, 35, and 45 at Lambeau, the last time with their BACK UP QB.  The Packers, not the Saints, are the highest scoring team in the League (35 ppg) and have averaged 40 ppg at home. The Giants are the "hot" team.  Comparisons are being made to 2007 when the Giants beat the Packers in their last home game, and beat the undefeated Patriots.  The fact is, the past means nothing.  The Packers are the most well prepared team in the NFL, and they are healthy.  Yes, the Giants can pose problems with their pass rush.  Yes, the Packers defense is a liability at times.  But the fact is, Aaron Rodgers will not make the killer mistake.  Eli Manning will make a couple.  Green Bay 41-31

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